The economist named scenarios for the Russian foreign exchange market in the context of US sanctions

The baseline scenario for the Russian foreign exchange market remains neutral, as the situation is unlikely to change significantly for the worse as a result of protectionism and sanctions from the United States. Andrey Loboda, an economist and top manager in the field of financial communications, told Izvestia on October 28.

"In reality, everything will depend on how exactly the sanctions will be implemented. A positive scenario for Russian oil companies involves purely nominal compliance with the accepted standards, which will not significantly affect the flows of companies. The negative aspect is the meticulous enforcement of sanctions, and then companies will really face difficulties," the expert said.

He noted that the rise in oil and commodity prices in recent weeks remains unstable. Loboda clarified that Russian sanctions are only one of the factors influencing the situation. Other factors he attributed to the decisions of OPEC+, the moderately growing global demand for energy resources and American politics. In his opinion, the current technical corridor for a barrel of Brent is from $64 to $66, while there is a possibility of reaching $70.

"Such a range will not compensate for the decline in export sales of Russian companies, if there are any, but it will not damage the Russian budget either. The volume of imports to Russia is not growing, and interest in the dollar, which is becoming cheaper on the foreign exchange market, is at a minimum. If the most negative scenario is smoothed out, the dollar may regain its position by 10% by the beginning of next year, reaching 90 rubles," the economist concluded.

Sergei Chizhov, a member of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, told the newspaper on the same day.Ru", that the first reaction of world markets to the sanctions imposed by the United States against Russian oil companies turned out to be favorable for our country. According to him, Washington's decision caused an increase in oil prices, which means that the revenues of the Russian state may increase, and sanctions will eventually be beneficial to Moscow.

On October 16, Peter Grishin, head of the Department of Macroeconomic Analysis and Debt Markets at Euler Analytical Technologies, said that the foreign exchange market in Russia today means less and less. According to him, there used to be a clear market in the country: an export ruble meant a ruble of the currency sold, an import ruble meant the currency bought. However, where sales agents work, foreign trade is in fact barter, which makes the work of the foreign exchange market meaningless, while the exchange rate is set in a circle of transactions ten times less than the one that needs to be taken into account.

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