The political scientist named two goals in a possible war between Israel and Lebanon

Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, PhD, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences (INION) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Israel pursues two goals in the event of a possible IDF operation in Lebanon.

"The first is to push Hezbollah away from the border, at least 30-40 km deep, as required by UN Security Council Resolution No. 1701. But at the same time, Israel cannot carry out a full-scale ground operation. The second is a demonstration of strength in front of its internal audience, especially against the background of criticism for the operation in Gaza and growing discontent with the country's leadership from the Israeli public," the expert believes.

According to him, Hezbollah is not just a paramilitary group, but also a large political and social structure deeply integrated into Lebanese society.

"It has its own schools, its own hospitals, and even such a powerful media resource as Al-Manar. The legitimacy of Hezbollah is particularly important in the eyes of a significant part of the Shiite population of Lebanon, as well as some representatives of other religious groups. They believe that she is one of the few forces in the country that is able to keep Israel at bay," the political scientist explained.

In his opinion, disarming Hezbollah is like "asking Lebanon to roll back to the state of the early 2000s."

"Because disarming Hezbollah could destabilize Lebanese society. On the one hand, the group mobilizes its own resources, can bring many people to the streets, organize mass protests, and act through its media, social and other resources," the expert believes.

On the other hand, according to the expert, if Hezbollah loses its military wing, then the question of its existence as a political and social structure will arise.

"And this will upset the existing very fragile and shaky balance between the main political forces in Lebanon. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the nuances surrounding last year's agreements, although in fact there was no formal legally binding agreement on the disarmament of Hezbollah as a whole," the expert added.

The analyst stressed that Hezbollah has never recognized its disarmament obligations, either after the Cedar Revolution in 2006 or under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, or now.

"And this is not stubbornness, but the main political principle of the movement. This is not a tactic, but the basis of the movement's identity, ideology, and declared political goal," Ostanin-Golovnya believes.

The orientalist believes that nothing prevents Israel from conducting some precise operations or even invading the southern regions of Lebanon.

"For Lebanon, every such episode threatens a catastrophe, both humanitarian, economic, and political, because the state has been teetering on the verge of slipping into a failed state for many years," the political scientist believes.

Earlier it became known that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing to repeat last year's operation "Arrows of the North" in Lebanon. According to a source in the northern command, the reason was Hezbollah's desire to restore its military potential with the help of foreign sponsors, in particular Iran. For several days now, Israel has been actively shelling southern and eastern Lebanon. More than a dozen people were killed, most of them members of Hezbollah.

For more information, see the Izvestia article.

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