Missile talk: the United States leaves a window for dialogue with Russia on the START Treaty

After the sanctions were announced, Trump positively assessed Putin's proposal to maintain restrictions on the START Treaty. At the same time, the issue of reducing nuclear weapons is facing serious disagreements between Democrats and Republicans. The former traditionally support the extension, while the Republicans advocate the abandonment of any restrictions. The United States is slow to respond, trying to engage China in a dialogue on strategic stability. Russia has repeatedly stated the need to take into account the arsenal of France and Great Britain. However, this is possible only on the basis of an agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States, experts say. Nevertheless, there are no plans at least to restart the bilateral Russian-American consultative commission on the START Treaty, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Izvestia.

The United States appreciated Putin's proposal on the Start Treaty

The dialogue between Russia and the United States has unexpectedly stalled in recent days, as evidenced, in particular, by the postponed summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured that Washington still intends to hold a meeting and is still interested in cooperation if there is an opportunity to resolve the Ukrainian conflict peacefully. The result of the disagreement was the imposition of sanctions by the United States against Russia for the first time since Trump's return to the White House.

However, this does not mean the cessation of dialogue at all — there are a lot of important issues on the agenda of both countries, for example, in the field of strategic stability. In the summer, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) predicted a new nuclear arms race. According to him, approximately 90% of all nuclear weapons and all decommissioned warheads fall on Russia and the United States — 4,309 and 3,700, respectively.

And there are good prospects for cooperation here. After the sanctions were announced, Trump again spoke positively about Vladimir Putin's proposal for a treaty on measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START, or START-3). Interestingly, just a few hours earlier, on October 22, a training session of the Russian strategic nuclear forces was held under the leadership of the President of the Russian Federation. Although experts point out that this is a long-term practice and a fully expected event in the context of combat training. On the other hand, the NATO nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon ("Steady Noon") with the participation of 14 alliance countries has been underway in the North Sea for the second week.

On September 22, the Russian president made a proposal to adhere to the START Treaty restrictions for a year after its expiration on February 5, 2026, calling on the United States to do the same.

However, there is still no official response from the White House to the Kremlin's proposal. Perhaps Trump's reaction so far only indicates that Washington intends to maintain common ground with Moscow for further dialogue.

"This is, let's say, the first step towards avoiding a contractual and legal vacuum in the field of nuclear arms control," said Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security.

In general, key American authorities advocate the preservation of the START Treaty. Thus, Vladimir Putin's proposal is positively assessed by the State Department and the National Security Council, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Probably, the Ministry of Finance is not against it either, since the buildup of strategic weapons is not a cheap pleasure. The modernization of the US nuclear triad is estimated at about $1.5 trillion and may even reach $2 trillion in 30 years. The main disagreement may be in Congress, whose bipartisan support will be needed for the subsequent extension of the agreement or the conclusion of a new one.

Traditionally, Democrats remain active supporters of compliance with the START Treaty restrictions. Actually, START-3 was signed in 2010 under the administration of Barack Obama. At the beginning of the year, several Democratic congressmen sent a letter to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asking him to start work on extending the START Treaty with Russia. They assured that the Republican administration has a unique opportunity to initiate high-level negotiations on the replacement of the treaty.

"Even when our countries had deep differences, including during the Cold War, we managed to sit down at the negotiating table to save the world from a nuclear catastrophe," the letter said.

— In general, the current republican administration is more skeptical about START-3, arguing that this agreement strengthens the position of Russia directly and China indirectly. The Democrats respect this agreement and are convinced that a vacuum in this area should not be allowed," Vasily Klimov told Izvestia.

How is the dialogue on strategic stability developing

A step towards cooperation on strategic stability could be, for example, the relaunch of the bilateral consultative commission of Russia and the United States on the START Treaty, which discusses the technical parameters of the agreement. The last meeting was supposed to be held in Cairo at the end of 2022, but was canceled on the initiative of the Russian side. The Russian Foreign Ministry then explained this by the situation around Ukraine, as well as the unwillingness of the United States to take into account Russia's priorities.

Now, despite the emerging prerequisites for a dialogue on strategic stability, there are no plans to revive such a format, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Izvestia.

"It's not visible yet," the diplomat said.

Later, Ryabkov outlined the consequences of the US rejection of the Russian proposal, speaking at a meeting in the framework of the webinar series "History and Modernity of Russian nuclear policy and public diplomacy in the nuclear field." He warned of a total vacuum in terms of restrictions on nuclear capabilities, increased tensions and a further increase in nuclear danger.

"But we will certainly cope with such an alternative, if it arises, and our safety will be guaranteed in any case," Ryabkov stated.

The United States is probably dragging its feet in order to engage China in a dialogue on strategic stability. There were talks about this during the first Trump administration. So it is now: at the upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping at the APEC summit, the American leader intends to discuss possible nuclear arms reductions. China has already accumulated at least 600 nuclear warheads, and it is increasing its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country (by about 100 units per year from 2023).

However, Beijing has repeatedly stressed that it has not yet reached the limits set by the START Treaty. The Chinese Foreign Ministry called the demands to join the negotiations between the United States and Russia on nuclear disarmament meaningless and unrealistic. At the same time, Moscow respects and accepts Beijing's position. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently stated, the Americans have been "running around" with the idea of a possible trilateral agreement on strategic stability for years.

— China can participate in the dialogue, but refuses unfair trilateral negotiations on disarmament. Against the background of weak progress in the implementation of the agreements on the new START treaty between the United States and Russia, the demand for China is premature and is seen as evading its own obligations," Cui Heng, an employee of the SCO Center for International Legal Training and Cooperation at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, told Izvestia.

Moreover, China believes that any new arms control efforts should go beyond simply limiting the number of nuclear weapons, that is, consider issues such as missile defense systems, security in outer space and "joint use of nuclear weapons," the expert says.

Russia, for its part, talks about the need to take into account the nuclear potential of Great Britain and France, that is, in fact, the common potential of NATO. Vladimir Putin paid special attention to this after the suspension of participation in the START Treaty. According to SIPRI, by 2024, the UK had 225 warheads, of which 129 were deployed, France had 290, of which 280 were deployed.

"If and when China joins the dialogue, and it won't be until the early 30s, then it will be on the basis of a bilateral Russian—American agreement, and a multilateral agreement should be developed on its basis, not only with China, but also with Britain and France,— Klimov emphasizes.

It is worth noting that Vladimir Putin's proposal is very timely. Saber-rattling, threats to shoot down unidentified UAVs and planes violating European airspace, pressure on Trump to transfer long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, new EU sanctions, and now the United States are causing serious concern, especially in light of recent warnings from the heads of Russian and American intelligence agencies, the director of the Institute for Nuclear Research at the American University in Washington draws attention. Professor Peter Kuznik.

The other day, Sergei Naryshkin, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, said at a meeting of the Council of Heads of Security Agencies and Special Services of the CIS in Samarkand that the world today is experiencing the most fragile moment for security after the Second World War. In June, the head of US National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, posted a three-minute video beginning with her visit to Hiroshima. In it, she warned the international community against a "nuclear holocaust" at a time when the world has come "closer than ever to the brink of nuclear annihilation."