The economist predicted the retention of the key rate at the Central Bank meeting

The Bank of Russia may keep the key rate at 17% at the next meeting of the Board of Directors, which will be held this Friday, October 24. This forecast was given by Inna Litvinenko, Associate Professor of Economics and Management at the Russian State University of Social Technologies, in an interview with Izvestia.

Autumn frosts: the market expects the key to remain at 17% in October

The regulator may take a pause in rate cuts until the end of the year.

"Although there is a possibility that the Central Bank will be able to surprise us with both a small decrease, for example, by half a percent, and an increase by the same half percent. But still, the probability of maintaining the key rate at 17% is much higher," the expert points out.

As for what will happen to the rate in the future, it is important to take into account that before the end of the year, in addition to the October meeting, there remains another meeting to be held in December, the Izvestia interlocutor reminds. And no major changes can be expected by the end of the year.

At the same time, the first half of 2026 may not be marked by a reduction in the key rate.

"We will see a progressive, systematic, gentle decline, spread over two years. The rate is likely to drop to 10-12% as a result. And it will be possible to talk about the 8-10% target only in 2027," Litvinenko predicts.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

Cautious approach: how the key rate will change at the October meeting of the Central Bank

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