Holding game: banks have started raising rates on individual deposits
Following the key rate, deposit rates have been moving down since the end of summer. However, in October, the usual logic of events was disrupted by a new trend. On the contrary, a number of Russian banks have begun to raise deposit rates in rubles. Izvestia found out what motivated this strategy and what guided credit organizations in offering depositors increased returns.
They offer more
The average maximum deposit rate in the top 10 banks dropped below 16% in the first decade of August, which happened for the first time in more than a year. The previous time at this level, the average maximum rate was in the second decade of June 2024.
The maximum "haircut" of deposit interest occurred in the last month of summer, when on July 25, the regulator immediately "weakened the key" by 200 basis points to 18%. Deposits were actively getting cheaper: This is how bankers reacted to disinflationary factors, hoping for further easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy, notes Irina Andrievskaya, director of content and analytics at <url> financial marketplace.
Restrained expectations
However, in September, contrary to the consensus forecast of market analysts, the Central Bank followed a conservative scenario and reduced the CS by only 100 bps to 17%. This is reflected in the slowdown in the dynamics of lowering deposit rates.
Thus, according to the Bank of Russia, the average maximum deposit rate in the top 10 banks in the first decade of October decreased slightly (by 0.09 percentage points) and amounted to 15.46% per annum.
Some banks are announcing interest increases on individual ruble deposits. For example, VTB raised the annual deposit rate by 1.5 percentage points to 15% per annum. In the Moscow Credit Bank, rates on several deposits increased by 0.2–0.8 percentage points. Absolut Bank increased rates for the terms of six, nine and 12 months by 0.25 percentage points, to 13.5–15% per annum. Dom Bank.The Russian Federation has raised the maximum rate on the Moy Dom deposit to 17% per annum.
Rather, it is the realization by banks that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has not planned and is not planning an active reduction in the nominal key rate. The Central Bank does not change its estimates, nor does it change its rhetoric, despite increasing market concerns and pressure from large businesses in favor of easing monetary conditions, notes Alexander Osin, an analyst at AKBF IC JSC.
Attract and retain
The players themselves attribute their willingness to offer increased deposit yields to the internal needs of credit institutions rather than to the possible dynamics of the key rate at the end of 2025.
Increased rates are, first of all, a competitive tool. Banks can actively raise funds to finance specific projects or fulfill loan portfolio plans, says Alexey Vinogradov, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of PJSC RosDorBank.
In order to retain customers whose deposits are coming to an end in the near future, they strive to offer more favorable terms than competitors in the market, says Alexey Gusev, senior analyst at Svoy Bank.
In addition, business activity traditionally grows in the fall, and banks' struggle for liquidity intensifies. In addition, the regulator sets mandatory liquidity standards for banks, which they are required to comply with.
Raising rates is a direct and most effective tool for attracting new customers at a time when citizens and companies are planning their finances for the end of the year, says Roman Karneev, Director of Product at NPF Gazfond Retirement Savings.
Household deposits are a reliable and predictable basis for the bank's passive base, allowing it to confidently plan its credit policy, the analyst clarifies.
The most profitable
Finally, banks strive to keep a sufficient amount of deposits. As explained by Yuri Isaev, an analyst at the service Brribank.ru In recent months, maximum rates have been offered under contracts for 1-3 months. And the constant renegotiation of contracts is beginning to push Russians away from using term deposits to save their savings, especially against the background of declining profitability.
Nevertheless, even now the most profitable deposits are those whose rate is tied to the key rate of the Bank of Russia, rather than fixed for the entire term, analysts point out. Such proposals allow the depositor to benefit if the regulator does decide to raise the key rate in the future, Alexey Vinogradov clarifies.,
— The most favorable conditions are currently offered by short—term deposits - for 3-4 months. Since the market expects it to decrease further in the medium term, deposits from six months to several years now offer lower rates than "short" products, adds Alexey Gusev.
For long-term savings, a Long-term Savings Program (RDS) is a good alternative. According to NPF GAZFOND Pension Savings, even if you join the program and make a contribution at the end of the year, the investment income that the non-governmental pension fund (NPF) has earned since the beginning of the year will be distributed for the entire amount contributed.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
