Temporary balance: the used car market has stabilized
In the first nine months, the used car market showed almost the same result as a year earlier — sales of such cars increased by less than 1%. There is no reason to expect major changes in this segment of the car market in the foreseeable future, but in the future it may undergo a deep structural restructuring, and some segments may well practically disappear, experts believe. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Slightly up and slightly down
In September, 553,346 used passenger cars were sold in Russia. This is reported by the analytical agency Autostat. This result is 2.1% less than in August, but 4.5% more than in September last year, the agency's experts say. In total, 4.419 million used car purchases were made in the secondary market in nine months, which is only 0.8% higher than in the same period of 2024.
Lada models are the most popular on the secondary market: in September, they sold 130.8 thousand units, and by the end of nine months — more than 1,123 million copies. Toyota is in second place with a result of 56.1 thousand and 441.3 thousand cars, respectively. Kia won the bronze medal (33.1 thousand and 250.1 thousand units), Hyundai (30.8 thousand and 239.8 thousand cars) and Nissan (24.5 thousand and 193.7 thousand cars) also entered the top five. Volkswagen is on the sixth line (23.4 thousand cars in September and 180.3 thousand cars in nine months), Chevrolet is in seventh place (19.4 thousand and 156.1 thousand units). The Honda brand closes the top 10 in the secondary market (18.8 thousand and 146.3 copies ). respectively), Renault (12.8 thousand and 147.7 thousand cars) and BMW (16.8 thousand and 123.9 thousand units).
Sales growth compared to the previous month in the top ten is shown only by BMW (+2.2%). Other car brands have a slight decrease, the strongest is the Lada brand (-4.9%). In comparison with the result for nine months, only Nissan demonstrates a negative trend (-2.7%). The Renault brand in the secondary market remained at the level of last year, while the other eight brands are in the black, with BMW having the most noticeable increase (+12.5%).
The Vaz Seven remained the most popular model among used passenger cars: in September, Russians bought 12.2 thousand Lada 2107 sedans. This is followed by the "Koreans" — Kia Rio (11 thousand units) and Hyundai Solaris (10.4 thousand units). The Lada 2114 Samara-2 hatchback has the fourth place (9,5 thousand units). The Ford Focus was among the five leaders of the secondary market, with a September result of 9.3 thousand units.
New height
Last month was a record for the last two years in terms of imports of used cars, according to analysts at Autostat. 48.4 thousand used cars were imported into our country, and almost all of them were registered to individuals, the agency's specialists emphasize.
Most of the used car models in Russia are still imported from Japan, but its share in total imports continues to decline: if in July they accounted for 48% of all imported used cars, then in September their share decreased to 39%. At the same time, China's share is growing: three months ago it was equal to 14%, now it has already exceeded 20%, approaching South Korea. Its share remains at around 22%.
Toyota remains the most popular brand in the structure of used passenger car imports (19% of all imported models). Honda is slightly behind it (15%), the top five also include BMW, Kia and Volkswagen brands, each of which accounts for a share of 6-8%.
In standby mode
The increase in used car imports is primarily due to the revision of the recycling calculation methodology announced in the middle of last month and the expected introduction of capacity restrictions on cars that will be subject to preferential rates when imported by individuals, said Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine.
— Expecting that the new rules would eventually affect the cost of cars, many decided to bring a used car before their introduction. This explains the record import rates of used models," he explained.
The introduction of a new recycling calculation method will have little effect on the cost of used cars, Roman Titov, Deputy General Director for Used Cars at Avilon Group of Companies, believes.
— We forecast a moderate increase in the cost of used cars by 4-5%. If there is no rush to demand, a subsequent downward price correction of 2-3% is possible, as sellers will be forced to stimulate buyers with discounts," he told Izvestia.
Market segmentation
Unlike the new car market, the segment of used cars is currently in a more or less balanced state, Maxim Kadakov believes. It is not worth expecting significant ups and downs in the foreseeable future, he believes.
— In my opinion, sales of used models will remain approximately at the current level over the next year. From month to month, slight fluctuations of 3-5% are possible, both in one direction and in the other. However, they will not particularly affect the overall picture. Judging by the sales dynamics, approximately 5.5-5.7 million transactions will be concluded in the secondary market by the end of the year, " the editor—in-chief of Za Rulem shared his forecast with Izvestia
The used car market in Russia is moving towards a deep structural restructuring, said Nikita Kolesnikov, a representative of the Japanese export company HSS in the Russian Federation. In the short term, the positions of domestic brands, primarily Lada, and old proven models that do not depend on imports are expected to strengthen, he believes.
— At the same time, there will be a growing shortage and a sharp increase in prices for imported used foreign cars. In the medium term, this could lead to an aging fleet, with the average age of cars in the country increasing due to the unavailability of upgrades. The adaptation will follow the path of shifting demand towards less powerful models and foreign cars localized in Russia, which will gradually enter the secondary market," he told Izvestia.
According to Nikita Kolesnikov, the announced changes in the recycling calculation methodology may change entire segments of the used car market.
"We may witness the collapse of the market for powerful used foreign cars, as well as hybrids and electric cars, for which recycling will become prohibitive," the expert concludes
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