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- Friendship with benefits: how Russia and Africa are increasing the volume of mutual trade
Friendship with benefits: how Russia and Africa are increasing the volume of mutual trade
Russia and Africa can significantly increase the volume of mutual trade. By the end of the decade, it may increase to about $50 billion. Over the past five years, trade has grown by more than 60%, from $16.8 billion to $27.7 billion. Comprehensive measures will help achieve the target level, including the launch of an investment mechanism to support Russian companies in Africa, the development of infrastructure and technology projects, and the expansion of settlements in national currencies, experts say. How Russia and Africa are increasing the volume of mutual trade — in the material of Izvestia.
The point of growth
Russia and Africa can significantly increase the volume of mutual trade. By the end of the decade, it may increase to close to $50 billion. This was stated by the head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation Sergey Katyrin.
He noted that over the past five years, trade between Russia and African countries has grown by more than 60%: from $16.8 billion to $27.7 billion.
"We see an increase in demand for Russian goods and technologies. The African market needs infrastructure in the fields of subsoil use, digitalization, nuclear and hydropower, and Russia has the experience and competencies to create it. This is the source of further growth — the transition to integrated industrial and technological projects," explained the head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
There are prerequisites for a significant increase in Russia's total trade turnover with African countries, confirms Andrey Maslov, Director of the HSE Center for African Studies. However, the realization of opportunities will depend on a number of factors, and only some of them may be influenced by the Russian side.
— We can be sure of the growing demand for products supplied from Russia in Africa due to the growth of economies, population and rapid urbanization on the continent. The growth of the urban population is about 4% per year, respectively, the demand for goods, the consumption of which is linked to the growth of cities, is growing, the expert points out.
Against the background of the radical reorientation of Russian foreign trade, the African continent is turning from a peripheral direction into one of the key growing markets for the Russian Federation, political scientist Ilona Mizova is convinced. An analysis of the data in recent years shows a dynamic, although still contradictory, picture.
Russia's trade turnover with African countries is showing steady growth, the Izvestia interlocutor clarifies. According to various estimates, it is about 35% in three years. And the pace is not only maintained, but also increasing.
New directions
The growth of mutual trade between Russia and Africa in recent years has been taking place against the background of a parallel slight decrease in the presence of European countries in the region and a serious strengthening of the role of China, said Evgeny Smirnov, Head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management.
— Even under the conditions of sanctions, Russia and Africa continue to develop new logistical channels of trade. Despite the development of trade, mutual exports are mainly concentrated within a narrow group," he points out.
Today, trade between Russia and Africa is mainly focused on exchange-traded goods, says Sergey Shevchenko, an Africanist and head of the Russo-Africa platform. The trade between Russia and Africa is dominated by exports of Russian goods, says Sergey Katyrin. The main dynamics is provided by the expansion of supplies of food, mineral fertilizers, energy carriers, machine-building and chemical products.
— Russia's exports to Africa are based on grain and other agricultural products, oil and petroleum products, equipment, automobiles, and so on. In addition, areas related to agricultural technologies, processing of agricultural raw materials, construction and logistics are actively developing," the head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry lists in an interview with Izvestia.
According to the importing countries, in 2022-2024, the volume of Russia's total exports to African countries exceeded the accumulated imports from the continent by about 11 times, Andrey Maslov draws attention. Russia's annual trade surplus with Africa is over $10 billion.
— Food products account for 47% of total exports. Energy resources accounted for 25%, while metallurgical products and fertilizers accounted for 11% and 7%, respectively. Among other supplies, exports of goods from the lumber and paper industry (3%), machine—building products (2%), and the chemical industry (1%) became significant," the Izvestia interlocutor cites statistics.
At the same time, cereals accounted for 88% of Russian food exports in 2024 and 41% of total supplies. Collectively, they were the largest export category in 2024, amounting to $4.9 billion. Most of them were wheat (99%, or 14 million tons), the expert said.
Meanwhile, the value of fertilizer exports in 2024 amounted to $900 million. In 2024, 21 countries of the continent imported various types of them. Nitrogen fertilizers dominate the export structure (52%), followed by multicomponent fertilizers (33%) and potash fertilizers (15%).
Trucks and equipment for various types of power plants also account for a small share of Russian exports.
Strategic partnership
Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, South Africa, Nigeria and Ethiopia remain Russia's most active partners, Sergei Katyrin lists.
According to Evgeny Smirnov, Egypt accounts for about 30% of the mutual trade turnover. About $6.5 billion is traded with this country, Ilona Mizova adds. Egypt is the largest buyer of Russian wheat. In turn, Algeria is a strategic partner in the field of military-technical cooperation. The volume of trade with it exceeds $3 billion.
— The share of sub-Saharan countries remains extremely small in trade between Russia and Africa. There has been a significant imbalance in the trade turnover between Russia and Africa in recent years," Smirnov emphasizes.
Imports to Russia really remain modest, confirms Mizova. The volume of supplies reaches about $1.5 billion. Vegetables, fruits and citrus fruits from Egypt, Morocco and South Africa, as well as manganese ores and bauxite are being transported to Russia. However, it is precisely in imports that the main potential for diversification remains.
"Thus, there is a classic asymmetry: Russia is a supplier of essential goods and strategic resources, while Africa is still more of a source of food and raw material diversity for us," explains the Izvestia interlocutor.
Achieve the goal
Russian business is massively interested in entering African markets, Sergey Shevchenko emphasizes. At the same time, African countries are looking for access to the Russian market and are gradually developing their own economies, which in the very near future will allow them to export more different goods to Russia, he expects.
— I think that by the end of the decade, and we have just under five years left, it is quite feasible to achieve a turnover of $ 50 billion. And, moreover, it is possible to significantly exceed these figures," the expert predicts.
Russia is aiming to deepen cooperation with African countries in the mining and energy industries, so achieving a trade turnover of $50 billion in the coming years is quite realistic, confirms Evgeny Smirnov. For comparison, the trade turnover between China and Africa is $150 billion, and between Europe and Africa — $300 billion.
Comprehensive measures will help achieve the target level of trade turnover, Sergey Katyrin points out. Among them, he highlights the launch of an investment mechanism to support Russian companies in Africa, the development of infrastructure and technology projects, as well as the expansion of settlements in national currencies.
"Africa is becoming not just a market, but a full—fledged area of strategic economic growth for Russia," the head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry is convinced.
But Andrey Maslov believes that Russian trade with Africa will not reach this indicator, since the scenario of a simultaneous and significant increase in prices for fertilizers, food and petroleum products remains marginal.
An increase in real supply volumes requires an expansion of transport and logistics capabilities and primary processing of products in the importing countries, the expert explains.
— So far, Russian exports are growing more slowly than the markets where they are noticeable and can be competitive, — says the interlocutor of Izvestia.
Among the key challenges and opportunities for Russia, Ilona Mizova highlights logistics and calculations, export diversification, which involves the transition from raw materials and food to the supply of machinery, equipment and high-tech services, as well as increased imports.
— Russia should open its own market to African countries, gradually exempting supplies from least developed countries from customs duties or establishing preferential customs treatment for them. Otherwise, these countries will look for alternative markets for their own products, and the imbalance in Africa's trade with Russia will further increase. Therefore, the growth of trade turnover will depend on preferential treatment in mutual trade," Smirnov said.
It is important to understand that there is a fundamental geopolitical reality behind the dry figures of trade turnover, Mizova emphasizes. Africa is a large resource and demographic continent with a strategically important position on the world map.
— Those who can firmly integrate it into their orbit of influence through economy, investment and security will receive not just a market, but a critical mass for global dominance in the 21st century. That is why Russia's current trade successes in Africa are not just about commerce. This is a bet in the struggle for who will rule the world tomorrow," the political scientist sums up.
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