Catch up and not overdo it: the plenum of the CPC Central Committee has started in China

The fourth Plenum of the CPC Central Committee of the 20th convocation has begun in China, which will last until October 24. It will discuss the economic development plan for the next five years. Statements about new personnel decisions are also possible. On the eve of the meeting, an investigation was launched into the case of generals of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) accused of corruption. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

In a state of trade war

"Chinese President Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, made a report on the work on behalf of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and clarified the draft proposals of the Central Committee of the Communist Party for the development of the 15th five-year plan for socio-economic development of the country for 2026-2030," the Chinese Xinhua news agency reported.

The plenums of the Communist Party are attended by 370 members of the Central Committee. Meetings are usually held behind closed doors, and journalists are not allowed to attend. The public will find out what fateful decisions have been made for the country in four days, when the theses of the next five-year plan are drawn up.

After that, they must be submitted to the National People's Congress (NPC) for consideration. After approval by the Chinese Parliament, the full text of the goals for the next five years will be published.

This time, the country approached the plenum in a state of escalating trade war with the United States and on the eve of Xi Jinping's likely meeting with Donald Trump at the APEC summit, which will be held from October 31 to November 1, 2025 in the Korean city of Gyeongju.

It is possible that the contradictions with the Americans in the field of trade and technology will be discussed at the plenum.

In addition, personnel changes cannot be ruled out. On the eve of the event, it became known about the expulsion of eight generals from the party, including a high-ranking military man named He Weidong. He is accused of abuse of power and corruption. In the military hierarchy, he was considered the third person in the country.

Lynn Sun, chief economist at ING Bank, believes that one can hardly expect any radical differences between the upcoming five-year plan and the previous ones.

China is facing difficulties related to the trade war, which escalated after Trump came to power, as well as "chronic internal problems that slow down economic growth," AP writes.

According to the agency, Xi Jinping is also likely to pay special attention to China's desire to become a world leader in many technologies, such as artificial intelligence.

The CPC is increasingly paying attention to the importance of "new high-quality productive forces," speaking of the need to develop areas such as biotechnology, hydrogen energy, and quantum computing.

According to Ning Zhang, a senior economist at UBS, China may increase spending on advanced technologies, given Beijing's desire for technological "self-sufficiency" and a desire to get rid of dependence on advanced American computer chips.

Laa Fahu, a China specialist at Capital Economics, believes that the key question is whether the Chinese authorities will change their approach to stimulating consumption. The government has already taken a number of measures, including increasing government subsidies for child care, consumer loans, and home appliance and electric vehicle exchange programs.

Zhang believes that stimulating consumption in China is "much more important now than before," but consumer confidence has been undermined after the real estate bubble burst a few years ago.

Wendy Leitert, professor of economics and commerce at Indiana University, said China still restricts spending in areas that could help balance the economy and boost consumer spending, such as healthcare, education, and child and elderly care.

Recently, China has been facing not only external trade pressure, but also demographic pressure, given the aging population. It is increasingly difficult for university graduates to find a job. According to official data, the unemployment rate among young people aged 16 to 24 is about 19%, and this affects their contribution to the country's economy.

What do the experts think

Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Lomonosov Moscow State University, believes that the trade war that has begun between China and the United States is unusual for both countries.

— Washington assumed that China would bend even with the first sanctions, with the first tariff increases, but Beijing did not agree to this. Relations have sharply deteriorated. At the same time, he always shows that he is ready to pause first, then step back on a number of positions, but in exchange for the fact that the United States will not use the so-called 100% tariffs on top of those that exist," the expert noted.

The Sinologist believes that Beijing is waiting for an essential offer from Washington, what it will receive in return.

"In parallel, outside the public space, trade negotiations are underway between China and the United States, and they are quite constructive, as far as can be understood from Chinese leaks," the analyst believes.

He explained that China hopes to come to an agreement with the United States, and in this sense, Beijing is ready to postpone these measures.

Ekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, head of the Center for World Politics and Strategic Analysis at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia that on the eve of the plenum, China's macroeconomic statistics for the first 3 quarters of 2025 were released, which showed that the Chinese economy is growing steadily.

— China's GDP growth was 5.2% against the planned target of 5%. On the eve of the opening of the plenum, the country's authorities emphasize that China continues to develop systematically, choosing the most appropriate path for this," the Sinologist explained.

According to the political scientist, it is highly likely that the 15th five-year plan will continue the logic of the 14th.

— The fifteenth five-year plan will be more flexible and this will allow the authorities to respond quickly to the turbulent external environment. Just as in the 14th plan, the country's authorities are unlikely to set a single target for economic growth for the entire five-year plan. Innovative breakthroughs are critically needed for China's development, and special emphasis will probably be placed on them, the expert believes.

The analyst is confident that the strategic planning of the 15th (2026-2030) and 16th (2031-2035) five-year plans will be crucial for a number of long-term development programs in China, the main of which is the completion of socialist modernization by 2035.

— The successful implementation of the plan will definitively and irrevocably destroy the West's hopes for China's return to the position of a controlled and led "global factory." In addition to discussing the 15th five-year plan, personnel changes will be carried out at the plenum," Zaklyazminskaya summed up.