What will the construction of a tunnel through the Bering Strait change? Analysis
Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), published a message on October 17 in which he noted that there is a prospect of building a tunnel between Russia and the United States. According to him, such a tunnel could connect Russia and Alaska through the Bering Strait in eight years. The construction cost will not exceed $8 billion. Discussions about this possibility have been going on for more than a century. What the opening of such a route will change is in the analysis of Izvestia.
The history of the highway through the Bering Strait
• The topic of a possible connection between the territories of Russia and the United States through the Bering Strait has been discussed since the end of the 19th century. The first governor of Colorado, William Gilpin, spoke about this for the first time. In 1890, he published the treatise "The Cosmopolitan Railway", in which he proposed to unite America and Eurasia with one highway, for which it would be necessary to build a bridge across the 86-kilometer Bering Strait.
This idea was first discussed in detail in 1905. French traveler Loic de Lobel, on behalf of a syndicate of American railroad magnates, communicated with the tsarist government, proposing the construction of the Siberian-Alaska Railway with a tunnel under the Bering Strait. It was supposed to be leased for 90 years with the right to extract minerals on a strip 26 km wide along the road. The project was estimated at $300 million, but in the end it was rejected by the Russian side.
• The idea of building a bridge or tunnel was not seriously discussed in the future. He was remembered more as a possible symbol that could improve relations between the USSR and the United States. They started talking about crossing the strait again after the announcement of a summit in Alaska with the participation of the presidents of Russia and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Two months after that meeting, Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said that the tunnel under the Bering Strait would take eight years to build, the project cost would be $8 billion, and it could be named after the leaders of the two countries: the Putin–Trump tunnel.
Global trade in the Pacific Ocean
• Currently, trade between the United States and the Far East is carried out by sea or, on a much smaller scale, by air. The busiest route is between China and the United States. Across the Pacific Ocean, ships from Chinese ports such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Qingdao and Ningbo reach American harbors in 15-20 days, if we are talking about the west coast. It can take 25-35 days to reach the Eastern court via the Panama Canal. Approximately the same time limits apply for shipments from Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. However, the length of the journey can be significantly affected by the weather and the queue of ships unloading at ports: sometimes containers stay at sea for two to three weeks, waiting for the opportunity to dock.
• In recent years, the volume of one-way cargo transportation from China to the United States has consistently exceeded 60 million tons, and the record year was 2018, when 72.3 million tons of Chinese goods were delivered to the United States. In 2024, before the start of the trade standoff, 67.6 million tons were delivered. South Korea is in second place in the Pacific Ocean: last year, 21.7 million tons of cargo were delivered from it. Vietnam occupies the third position with 20.6 million tons of cargo in 2024.
Impact on the global economy
• The tunnel will facilitate U.S. trade with major Asian partners, primarily China, significantly reducing transportation costs and cargo handling time. Currently, the ports of the west coast of the United States cannot cope with the load, forcing Asian ships to wait in line for weeks. And because of the congestion of the Panama Canal, ships stand idle in queues, wasting not only time, but also money, which they have to pay for the passage of the route.
• The project will contribute to strengthening cooperation between Russia and the United States in the Arctic region. The United States may be interested in obtaining Russian mining technologies in the conditions of the North while developing the resources of Alaska. The winners will be Canada, China, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, the Middle East and Europe, which will be able to expand their trade geography through the existing railway network.
• For Russia, which has a land border with China and the ability to transport energy resources via the Northern Sea Route (NSR), the tunnel may become an additional trade route. Rail transportation is generally more profitable than sea transportation, as it is less dependent on the weather. Russia will be able to gain competitive advantages as a major logistics hub, as well as additional revenue from transit.
• The project cannot be implemented without lifting sanctions against Russia, so even taking into account the cost of building a tunnel under the Bering Strait will be a boon for the Russian economy. In addition, the transit country's position will not allow Western countries to try to isolate Russia again, either politically or economically, and will protect them from possible sanctions.
The importance of the Northern Sea Route
• Experts agree that the tunnel under the Bering Strait should not become a competitor to the Northern Sea Route and develop to the detriment of maritime transportation. The NSR is now Russia's competitive advantage: It connects China with Europe and allows for the lowest cost delivery of energy resources to Asian markets. The NSR is more profitable than transportation through the Suez Canal due to the absence of piracy and customs duties.
• Russia has advantages in northern waters due to its unique icebreaking fleet and global warming, which extends the period of seasonal navigation. In addition, this route connects the subarctic and Arctic regions of Russia and provides access to the resources of the Arctic shelf and Siberia.
Political benefits
Stable and mutually beneficial trade relations have always been linked to good political relations between countries. The tunnel project connecting Russia and the United States belongs to the strategic category, which is able to strengthen relations between Moscow and Washington. This is a long-term investment that will pay off not in five or ten years. However, the tunnel will launch a chain of new projects in the field of mining, exchange of experience and technology. For example, Alaska has deposits of rare earth metals, and Russia has technologies for their extraction that the United States does not have.
• At the same time, there may be changes in relations between the United States and China. Taiwan is important for the United States as an instrument of pressure on China. If a new logistics route is launched that will speed up international transportation and probably contribute to an increase in trade between China and the United States, the negotiation process between these countries may go faster, and a deal will be reached sooner or later. Then Taiwan's importance will plummet.
• The project is important to the United States as an alternative supply route that will diversify trade and protect itself — a logical continuation of Trump's protectionist policies. In the same sense, it is important for Russia, which will simultaneously develop the NSR and railway supplies.
During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:
- Konstantin Ordov, Director of the Higher School of Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Doctor of Economics;
- Inna Andronova, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Dean of the RUDN University Faculty of Economics;
- by Izvestia columnist Andrey Kuzmak.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
