The analyst warned about the risk of bitcoin falling to $ 100 thousand.

Bitcoin is experiencing the consequences of a large-scale liquidation of $19 billion worth of long positions caused by the geopolitical shock following US President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% duties on Chinese imports. Vasily Girya, the owner and CEO of GIS Mining, told Izvestia about this on October 17.

"The market has remained low—liquid, which makes it vulnerable to sharp drawdowns even under moderate pressure - enough for market makers to temporarily remove orders from the stock market," Giria said.

He also pointed to the main pressure factors: Trump's unpredictable trade rhetoric, a shutdown in the United States blocking the publication of key macro data, rising risks in the regional banking sector, and a general cooling in stock market sentiment. The loss of confidence in the dollar and fears of stagflation are also adding to the uncertainty. At the same time, expectations of a Fed rate cut on October 29, an influx of funds into spot ETFs, and active purchases by retail investors and new holders provide support.

"Bitcoin is currently trading in a wide sideways range between $102,000 and $116,000, where the lower bound corresponds to the level of mass liquidations. A breakdown below $102,000 opens the way to testing the $100,000 zone, which is technically possible and even likely in conditions of low liquidity and lack of macro stability," the expert explained.

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According to the results of the week from October 13 to October 17, the price is likely to end around $ 110 thousand, depending on the reaction to the speeches of representatives of the US Federal Reserve and any new relevant information channels. By the beginning of the third decade of October, the market is likely to remain in a sideways movement, awaiting the publication of CPI on October 24 and the Fed meeting (October 29). If the inflation data turns out to be neutral and the shutdown ends, a steady rebound to the $116,000 mark is possible; otherwise, further consolidation with the risk of a new fall.

"It is important to note that the noticeable volatility in the digital currency market does not have a noticeable impact on the industrial mining industry in Russia. On the contrary, in the middle of autumn, the activity of large institutional customers increased by almost 30% compared to the summer business season," the specialist said.

With the price of bitcoin above the $100,000 mark, he pointed out, the cost of its production today is below 70% of the exchange value. GIS Mining's moderately optimistic forecast for bitcoin by the end of this year still adheres to the scenario of reaching the range of $125-130 thousand.

On October 11, it was reported that the cost of bitcoin dropped below $105 thousand for the first time since June 2025. At 00:19 Moscow time, bitcoin fell by 13.68%, reaching the level of $ 104.764 thousand. By 00:34 Moscow time, the cryptocurrency exchange rate recovered slightly to $111.338 thousand, which remained 8.25% lower than the previous level.

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