The expert predicted a 1% reduction in the Central Bank's key rate at the upcoming meeting.

The Central Bank of Russia may decide at its meeting on October 24 to reduce the key rate by 100 basis points to 17% per annum. This forecast was announced by Georgy Ostapkovich, scientific director of the HSE Center for Market Research, in an interview with Izvestia on October 16.

According to him, the regulator will face a difficult choice between inflationary risks and a slowdown in economic growth.

The date of the new key rate meeting has been announced: what will the Central Bank decide

Experts do not expect drastic changes in the level of the "key"

The expert noted that the current macroeconomic situation is in favor of keeping the rate at the same level. The first week of October showed high inflationary growth, and the weakening of the ruble creates additional pro-inflationary factors. However, on the other side of the scale is a sharp slowdown in the economy, which this year will show no more than 1-1.3% growth.

"The main problem in the economy is very expensive money. They are very expensive due to the high bid. Therefore, the Central Bank will probably compromise and lower it by 100 basis points. Although my assessment is that he should leave it in place today and see what the situation will be like next," Ostapkovich explained.

Of particular importance to the upcoming decision is the fact that the next key rate meeting is scheduled only for the end of December. According to the expert, even a reduction to 17% will keep loans at a prohibitive level, but it will be an important positive signal for businesses. This will allow companies to start preparing for investments and innovations in anticipation of further monetary easing. The final decision will depend on Rosstat's inflation data for the next two weeks.

Earlier, Ostapkovich told Izvestia that the dollar exchange rate would return to around 90 rubles in November and December, which would be in line with the interests of the federal budget and exporters. According to him, the current depreciation of the US currency is temporary and will soon be replaced by a gradual strengthening.

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