The expert predicted the strengthening of the dollar to 90 rubles by the end of the year

The dollar exchange rate will return to 90 rubles in November – December, which will be in line with the interests of the federal budget and exporters. This forecast was shared with Izvestia on October 15 by Georgy Ostapkovich, scientific director of the HSE Center for Market Research.

According to him, the current depreciation of the US currency is temporary and will soon be replaced by a gradual strengthening.

"It will be beneficial for the budget, exporters will pay more taxes and receive revenue for their goods. This will not be painful for the population, because the population has long seen these 90 rubles and reacted calmly to this. This will be a fairly calm situation for economic agents," the expert said.

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Ostapkovich noted that the only advantage of a weak dollar is cheaper imported goods, which make up about 35% of the consumer basket of Russians, mainly fruits and machinery. However, this effect will appear no earlier than six months after the strengthening of the ruble.

A key factor in the growth of the dollar will be the seasonal demand for foreign currency from importers who are actively buying goods for New Year's sales. This will create a natural shortage of foreign currency in the market. Ostapkovich also did not rule out targeted intervention by the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance to correct the exchange rate in the interests of the budget, since a moderate devaluation of the ruble would help cover the deficit by increasing tax revenues from exporters.

The expert called the reduction of deposit rates from 22% to 13-15% per annum an additional incentive for the flow of funds into the currency. This makes the population think about converting savings into dollar denominations in order to maintain profitability.

According to Ostapkovich, the formation of the exchange rate remains a market process, where the current price reflects the real balance of supply and demand.

On September 25, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, announced the risks of a rapid reduction in the key rate. According to her, this may lead to an acceleration of inflation.

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