The expert predicted further strengthening of the ruble against the background of economic growth

The decline in the estimated dollar exchange rate below 80 rubles indicates the fundamental undervaluation of the Russian currency and reflects the strengthening of the competitiveness of the domestic economy. Maxim Chirkov, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements at GUU, expressed this opinion in an interview with Izvestia on October 14.

"The current situation in the foreign exchange market demonstrates the stability of Russia's economic position. The strengthening of the ruble is becoming one of the factors curbing inflation, as imported goods become cheaper when converted into the national currency," he said.

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The economist drew attention to the prospects for further strengthening of the ruble in the medium and long term, which is associated with the steady growth of the Russian economy relative to Western countries. The policy of the new US administration may also play a role in this process, which, according to the expert, will contribute to the weakening of the US currency in order to increase the competitiveness of its own economy.

Chirkov noted that sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate are not expected in the near future, but the systematic strengthening of the ruble will continue. As for the potential factors for changing the current trend, a reduction in the key rate by the Bank of Russia may have a certain impact — this can cause short-term speculative movements, but the expert does not predict a drastic weakening of the national currency.

"It is clear that in conditions of a more equitable distribution of economic growth rates and resources in the global economy, these imbalances will disappear and the Russian ruble will certainly strengthen against the dollar in the medium and long term, eliminating the balance accumulated over many years and decades," he concluded.

On September 25, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, announced the risks of a rapid reduction in the key rate. According to her, this may lead to an acceleration of inflation.

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