A conflict is breaking out between Afghanistan and Pakistan. What you need to know

On October 11, intense fighting broke out on the Afghan-Pakistani border. Dozens of soldiers from both sides were killed in the clash. What is the reason for the confrontation and what are the prospects for its settlement — in the material of Izvestia.

The essence of the conflict

• The length of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, established back in 1893, is approximately 2.4 thousand km. It was conducted during the period when modern Pakistan was part of British India. After the formation of Pakistan in 1947, the Afghan authorities refused to recognize this border because it separates their tribes, who historically lived on both sides. Since then, the dispute over the border has continued. Armed conflicts regularly arise along this long and impassable border, as well as smuggling. This makes it one of the most unstable border zones in Asia.

• The escalation of the conflict in 2025 may be related to the recent rapprochement between Afghanistan and India, which has caused irritation in Islamabad. India, which is building relations with the Taliban, plans to turn the technical representation into a full-fledged embassy. The country's authorities see this strategy as an opportunity to strengthen their influence in Afghanistan and prevent Pakistan from completely dominating the border area. However, India is in no hurry to formally recognize the Taliban government. She sees the rapprochement as a pragmatic step in the geopolitical interests. All this causes dissatisfaction with Islamabad, with which India has difficult relations (we discussed the spring escalation of relations between the countries here).

Conflict development

• After a series of explosions that took place on October 9 in Kabul and in the southeastern regions of the country, the Afghan military said that Pakistan had violated the territorial integrity of Afghanistan. In response, Islamabad denied involvement in the air attacks, but demanded that Kabul stop providing safe haven to the militants of the Pakistani wing of the Taliban. The Pakistani side claims that these militants have been responsible for the deaths of hundreds of soldiers since 2021. According to media reports, Islamabad's military strikes were directed against Nur Wali Mehsud, the head of the Pakistani Taliban.

• On the evening of October 11, Afghan forces opened fire on a number of border areas. Pakistan responded with heavy artillery, armored vehicles, and a drone. At the same time, the level of combat readiness on the eastern border with India has been increased — the Pakistani authorities fear that New Delhi may interfere in what is happening.

• In Afghanistan, it was reported that 58 Pakistani soldiers and about 20 Afghan soldiers were killed in the fighting. At the same time, Kabul managed to capture several border posts and enemy weapons. After calls for peace from Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the Taliban abandoned their occupied borders. However, the Islamic Emirate called the operation a success.

• In Pakistan, Afghanistan's actions were regarded as a provocation. Islamabad noted that such attacks would not be left without a harsh response, and once again accused Kabul of supporting terrorists operating against Pakistan. The Islamic Republic has repeatedly warned its neighbors about groups using Afghan territory for attacks.

The forces of the parties

In terms of military capabilities, Pakistan is significantly superior to Afghanistan. He has at his disposal one of the largest armies in South Asia, equipped with modern fighter jets, tanks and missile systems. The situation is also complicated by the fact that Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons (according to various estimates, from 60 to 170 warheads).

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• Afghanistan has less organized and technically limited forces. He relies on a large number of fighters who know the mountainous terrain well. Despite the Taliban's experience, the technological asymmetry between the countries is obvious. In the event of a large-scale conflict, Pakistan has much more resources for long-term operations and protection of its borders.

Theoretically, Afghanistan could strengthen its position in the conflict if it received military or political support from India. However, despite New Delhi's long-standing feud with Islamabad, India is unlikely to intervene directly. Its strategy is focused on deterring Pakistan through diplomatic and economic means, rather than engaging in foreign military conflicts.

Prospects for conflict development

• Further development of the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan may lead to prolonged instability on the common border. The intensification of hostilities may provoke a new flow of refugees, an increase in arms smuggling and drug trafficking, as well as a deterioration in the humanitarian situation. The regional powers — Iran, China and the Persian Gulf countries — will be forced to look for ways to prevent further escalation, as the conflict interferes with trade routes and leads to the spread of radical movements.

• If the confrontation drags on, Pakistan will be forced to maintain security in two directions — Afghan and Indian, which is likely to complicate its economic situation. Afghanistan, in turn, risks facing a weakening of the Taliban's power and the strengthening of local gangs. This may create conditions for a new internal political split in the country. In the long term, both sides will have to seek mediation from third countries or international structures.

When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

● Alexey Kupriyanov, Head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region, IMEMO RAS;

● Georgy Machitidze, Senior Researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies.