Good morning: why coffee is getting more expensive in Russia

The average price of instant coffee in the Russian Federation in September was 4006 rubles after 3988 rubles in August. The price increase is attributed to bad weather in exporting countries. Read about the situation on the global coffee market in the Izvestia article.

By leaps and bounds

The Arabica variety has gained 50% in price since the beginning of the year, and robusta — 40% since July 2025. The average price of coffee beans and ground coffee is close to 2,000 rubles.

Rosstat's monitoring includes three types of coffee: natural instant coffee (1 kg), natural coffee beans and ground (1 kg), as well as coffee in fast-service organizations (200 g).

Instant coffee has the highest cost per kilogram. In September of this year, the average cost in Russia was about 4 thousand rubles. In addition, over the past period of this year, its price has increased most noticeably in absolute terms (+498 rubles). The increase in prices has also affected retail. So, in public catering, coffee rose in price by an average of 70 kopecks, to 111 rubles.

Over the past 5 years, there has been a dramatic increase in coffee prices. September prices increased as follows: 2,577 rubles per 1 kg of instant coffee in 2021, 3,291 rubles in 2022, 3,186 rubles in 2023, 3,386 rubles in 2024, and 4006 rubles in 2025. As of September 2025, the price increase was 55% compared to September 2021.

Two reasons

The experts surveyed cited two main reasons for the rise in coffee prices.

Firstly, Brazil has a poor harvest due to the drought. Vietnam, another leader in supplies, has preferred to diversify its plantings in favor of exotic fruits in recent years, which is why the share of coffee plantations is decreasing. In the country, due to the storm season, coffee production has also decreased in recent years, while its popularity is growing among consumers all over the world.

Secondly, the introduction of new American duties on Brazilian coffee. The demand for coffee raw materials increased sharply before the duties began to take effect. Most of the experts surveyed consider this factor to be short-term.

European restrictions

An important factor is the new regulatory standards in the EU to combat deforestation, which have been talked about since 2021, says Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the analytical agency VMT Consult.

— The point of the reform is to require the EU to provide evidence from suppliers that products were not produced in places where it was necessary to cut forests after 2020. Large companies should start reporting at the end of 2025, small and microenterprises by June 2026. But at the moment, the final introduction of the EUDR law is being held back by the technical part. The European Commission insists that the introduction of the norm will lead to failures in current information systems," she outlines the situation.

According to the analyst, if the norm is introduced, the cost of agricultural products will increase significantly due to the cost of completing the correct documentation. "And limited supply inevitably affects prices," Kosareva concludes.

The paradox of the depth of processing

The main effect of the price increase in Russia was caused by an increase in world prices — by 45% compared to a year earlier.

At the same time, with the intensity of the processing depth and additional service, the increase in coffee prices for end consumers weakens, Denis Ternovsky, Doctor of Economics, leading researcher at the Center for Agri-Food Policy at the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEI) of the RANEPA, told the publication.

— So, if the prices of coffee beans in Russia increased by 28% over the year, then the cost of instant coffee increased by 18%, and a cup of takeaway coffee increased by 13%, — he noted.

Ekaterina Kosareva sees in this trend a significant margin on a high-margin product throughout the chain to the consumer and a desire to remain competitive.

Uneven growth

Coffee prices are rising unevenly even within the same country, so global statistics on price dynamics are not so noticeable in some Russian regions.

So, in September of this year, ground coffee was the most expensive in the Kamchatka Territory (5,9 thousand rubles per 1 kg), grain or ground coffee was the most expensive in September for residents of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (3,2 thousand rubles per 1 kg), and coffee in catering establishments was the most expensive for residents of the Kamchatka Territory (251 rubles for 200 years) — Evgeny Trautman, an expert of the ACRA group of sovereign and regional ratings, provides figures.

The cheapest instant coffee is in the Republic of Ingushetia (2.4 thousand rubles per 1 kg), the Republic of North Ossetia — Alania (2.8 thousand rubles), in the Lipetsk region (3 thousand rubles), in the Omsk region (3.1 thousand rubles) and in the Samara region (3.2 thousand rubles) — these are the ACRA data for the past September.

The main factor influencing the uneven prices is logistical and regional peculiarities, says Yulia Makarenko, Deputy Director of the Banking Institute for Development.

— The remoteness of the regions from the main ports and transport hubs, the difficulty of transportation to hard-to-reach areas of Chukotka and Kamchatka Krai, especially the "last mile" to the consumer. Another sensitive reason is the different income levels of the population and the different level of business costs (shops and coffee shops spend differently on rent and utility bills), as well as the unevenly growing tax burden of enterprises, the financier lists.

Part of the cultural code

An increase in coffee prices will not provoke the abandonment of this popular drink, Denis Ternovsky believes.

— In 2025, coffee accounted for 1.7% of food expenditure, while potatoes accounted for only 1.1%. This suggests that coffee has become part of the cultural and consumer norm for Russian consumers," he stressed.

The economy segment is likely to suffer the greatest impact due to rising prices: Russians will prefer a more budget-friendly alternative to daily takeaway coffee, changing their consumer habits, rather than switching to other drinks, Ekaterina Kosareva believes.

— In the first six months of 2025 alone, Russians spent 17 billion rubles on 1.2 million devices for making coffee at home. These are horn coffee makers, capsule models, Turkish machines, filter coffee makers and geyser coffee makers," the analyst comments.

Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Agriculture, but by the time the material was published, no responses had been received.