The economist explained the reasons for the record growth in ESPO oil supplies in September

In September, shipments of Russian ESPO crude oil increased by 22.6% compared to August. This growth is explained not only by the easing of the OPEC+ deal, but also by a number of other factors. Alexander Schneiderman, Head of Alfa-Forex's Customer Support and Sales department, told Izvestia about this on October 13.

According to the expert, an important reason was the common interest of countries in replenishing their oil reserves in storage facilities, while quotations are at a low level and storage volumes allow this to be done. In the context of the struggle for global market share, OPEC+ countries are trying to maintain supplies.

In addition, Schneiderman noted that Russian oil companies are actively working to prevent overstocking of oil, which also helps to increase supplies. Daily oil storage increases the cost of raw materials, so high turnover is important for companies.

Fill barrels: OPEC+ has decided to increase production again

What will the increase in oil output by 137 thousand barrels per day mean for the market?

It is also important that energy consumption for heating increases at the beginning of the autumn-winter season, which also affects supply growth.

"As long as oil prices are at extremely low levels, importing countries (not only China), especially from Asian countries, will seek to buy energy resources profitably. Against the background of extremely low prices, Russian oil is even more attractive, as importers bear risks when working with Russian suppliers, which is why they require an additional discount," added Schneiderman.

According to the expert, the further dynamics of oil supplies will depend on many factors, including the decision of OPEC+ and the situation with sanctions, as well as seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand. Schneiderman also noted the importance of geopolitical events in the Middle East and currency fluctuations, which will affect the energy market.

In mid-autumn, the base price range for Brent crude oil is $ 60-65 per barrel, and there is a possibility of further growth to $ 65-70 in the coming months if the market situation stabilizes.

Earlier, on October 8, it was reported that the ambassadors of the EU countries agreed to continue implementing the plan to stop importing Russian oil and gas by 2028. Almost all EU countries are said to have supported the project, despite criticism from Hungary and Slovakia.

All important news is on the Izvestia channel in the MAX messenger.