Increased momentum: several countries are ready to join the settlement in Gaza

In accordance with the agreements that came into force on October 10, Israel withdrew its forces in Gaza to the so—called "yellow Line" - the second boundary provided for by the Donald Trump peace initiative. The "depth" of the Israeli contingent's presence varies from 2.5 to 6.5 km, depending on the area, the total controlled territory is about half of the actual area of the exclave, and military operations have been discontinued. This creates favorable conditions for further settlement. And Trump intends to achieve new diplomatic breakthroughs in the coming days. However, according to experts, the difficulties will only increase over time.

American control

In parallel with the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the United States is stepping up preparations for the next stage. Up to 200 US military personnel have been sent to Israel to monitor the observance of the "humanitarian pause."

The contingent will form the basis of an international coordination group created under the auspices of the United States. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM), who has been in Israel since October 10, is authorized to lead it at this stage. In addition to representatives of the Pentagon and CENTCOM, the group will include officers from the armies of Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. According to Arab media, the option of inviting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is also being considered, but neither Riyadh nor Abu Dhabi officially confirm this information.

RIAC Program Manager Ivan Bocharov notes that the work of the US coordination center in Israel can be effective, but only within the framework of the functionality assigned to it.

— First of all, we are talking about monitoring compliance with the ceasefire agreements. Another thing is that this does not mean preventing these very violations. The escalation of the situation, the unwillingness of the parties to the conflict to move on to the second stage of the peace plan — all this remains possible. The presence of a coordination center does not solve fundamental problems, although it is becoming a noticeable focus in US activity around the war in the Gaza Strip," the expert noted.

Given that there are no plans to deploy American forces into Gaza, other players have begun working out ways to possibly "enter" the exclave. Turkey was among the first to identify such plans. Abdullah Guler, a representative of the ruling Justice and Development Party, said that the Foreign Ministry, Defense Ministry and special services are consulting on sending a contingent to Gaza. The day before, the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced that it was possible to quickly deploy a peacekeeping contingent in the Palestinian exclave, consisting of special forces soldiers with experience in Syria.

According to Elena Yakovleva, a researcher from St. Petersburg State University, Ankara has the option to act in Gaza "according to the Syrian scenario," motivating its military presence there with national security issues. However, there are at least a few significant limitations.

— Firstly, it is a question of legitimacy, due to the lack of an international mandate and the status of the Territory. In sovereign Syria, Turkey operated in the border area, formally justifying the operation by creating a buffer, while in Gaza there is a different geographical and political configuration. Secondly, there are risks that Turkey's relations with the United States will give a new crack. Ankara's unilateral actions can both complicate the dialogue on defense and military-technical issues and cause tension within NATO," she noted.

On the other hand, the expert is convinced that the appearance of a Turkish contingent in Gaza is still possible, but only as part of a multinational force and at a later stage of the settlement.

On the eve of the Gas summit

An important milestone in the settlement of the conflict (from the point of view of the United States) will be Trump's visit to Egypt, scheduled for next week. According to a number of media reports, it plans to hold a summit on the Gaza Strip. The leaders and foreign ministers of Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Indonesia are expected to participate. At the same time, the participation of the Israeli Prime Minister has not yet been announced.

The agenda of the meeting will largely be formed based on the results of the hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas. Despite the fact that the parties generally accepted Washington's conditions, the approval of the lists from the Israeli side is complicated. There are disputes not only over the figures of Hamas field commanders (Marwan Barghouti, Ibrahim Hamed and others), but also figures important to the local public who are not related to the military sector.

For example, Israel refused to release two employees of the Gaza health system, Husam Abu Safiya and Marwan al-Hamsa. Both were arrested on suspicion of collaborating with Hamas, but an indictment against them was never approved. The Israelis' desire to clean up the exchange list is causing discontent among the Palestinians and in the future may cause a slowdown in the pace of settlement.

Experts, however, are convinced that the positive effect of the meeting in Egypt will keep the negotiations afloat for some time.

"Under the most favorable circumstances after the summit in Egypt, the parties will really be able to come to a compromise," political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev said in an interview with Izvestia. — Another question is how long the peace agreement will last and whether there will be a situation, which, by the way, has already arisen many times, when one of the parties decides to open fire again.

Alternative platforms for negotiations

However, the settlement in Gaza does not focus solely on the United States. Other players, including Russia, are also showing their willingness to help. Moscow maintains contacts with both the Palestinian factions and Israel, which gives it the opportunity to negotiate with all interested parties at once, as well as with other intermediaries. The Russian-Arab summit, which was originally supposed to take place in October, but then it was postponed, may also become a platform for discussing the details of the settlement. According to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, it may take place in November.

Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed his willingness to join the process. "Russia has something to say and something to offer to resolve those issues that will arise one way or another during the implementation of the agreements reached," the Russian leader noted.

A similar position is held in China. Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said at a briefing that Beijing supports the implementation of the two-state solution and is ready to work with the international community to promote a comprehensive settlement of relations between Israel and all Palestinian factions.

The willingness of other superpowers to engage in dialogue ensures that the momentum generated by Trump's peace initiative will not be lost even if the American settlement formula loses its effectiveness. And the White House is satisfied with such support.