Temperature down: experts predicted an abnormally cold winter in Russia

An abnormally cold winter is expected in the European part of Russia, with possible frosts up to -25 degrees from Murmansk to Krasnodar. This forecast was announced by Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller. At the same time, other experts predict that the winter will be warmer than normal in most of the country. The first snow in Moscow will fall in mid-October. About what kind of weather is expected in Russia — in the Izvestia article.

What kind of winter will it be in Russia

An abnormally cold winter is expected in the European part of Russia. Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee, announced this forecast the day before. He specified that in the near future we can expect winter with temperatures up to -25 degrees, covering the territory from the Murmansk region to the Krasnodar Territory. At the same time, historical analysis over the past 100-150 years shows that the appearance of such a cold winter does not depend on the temperatures of the previous season.

According to Miller, there is a cold winter every 10 years, and especially severe frosts every 20 years.

At the same time, forecaster Evgeny Tishkovets noted that such a forecast is likely to be no more than 14%. He pointed out that in most of the country, the upcoming winter is likely to be 1-4 degrees warmer than the climatic norm, and precipitation is near normal or slightly above normal.

In the capital region, temperatures will exceed the norm by 2.5–3 degrees, and the onset of a meteorological winter with a steady formation of snow cover will occur in the second half of November, said Tishkovets.

"It is necessary to plan to change cars to winter tires in early November, before the 3rd or 4th," he added.

Where and when will winter come in Russia

Indeed, frosts are forecast in a number of Russian regions in November. Cooler than November 2024, it will be in the north of the Central and Volga Federal Districts, in the North-Western District, in the north of the Urals, as well as in the northern and central regions of Siberia. In December, average temperatures in most regions of the country are expected to be lower than last year. This was announced by the scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Roman Vilfand in a conversation with TASS.

In January, cold weather will cover most of European Russia, as well as the central and southern territories of the Ural and Siberian districts, where temperatures will be significantly lower than in January 2024.

February promises to be colder than the previous year in the northern part of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and western Yakutia. The first month of spring, March, will bring warming — the average air temperature in most regions will exceed the norm.

When will it snow in Moscow

The first snowflakes in the capital are forecast for October 14-15. At the same time, experts specify that the snow cover itself will not form.

And the meteorological winter in Moscow will begin in the second half of November, with the establishment of stable snow cover, said Evgeny Tishkovets, a leading specialist at the Phobos weather center.

He specified that by the end of autumn and the beginning of December, the snow height will be 3-8 cm, and in January, snowdrifts may grow to 10-20 cm. The forecast for the capital for the winter is generally expected to be relatively mild, but with periodic alternations of warm and cold periods. The height of the snow cover can reach 30-40 cm at some moments.

When snow falls in St. Petersburg and Leningrad region

St. Petersburg is facing a sharp deterioration in the weather in late October and early November. Forecasters warn that the November holidays will be accompanied by the first snow, rains and significant cold snap.

According to Gismeteo, relatively warm but unstable weather with temperatures up to +10-11 °C, frequent rains and gusty winds under the influence of Atlantic air masses will remain in the city in October.

By the end of October, a cold front will arrive, which will cause a sharp deterioration in weather conditions: clouds and wind will increase, and temperatures will quickly go down. Light rains are possible, and by the end of the week the temperature will drop close to zero.

Forecasters are paying special attention on October 29 — the first snow is expected on this day and the maximum temperature is about +3 degrees.

The most serious weather changes are forecast for the November holidays from November 1 to November 4: it will be cloudy in the city, with sleet and rain, the temperature will fluctuate between +1 and +4 degrees. This cold and humid period will last at least until November 8th.

Where in the regions of Russia has snow already fallen

Snow already covers about 30% of the Russian territory. Meteorologist Roman Vilfand noted that the northern parts of the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts are completely covered with snow, which corresponds to the usual climatic schedule for these regions.

However, snow that fell in September in the Urals is considered rare. According to Tatyana Pozdnyakova, chief specialist of the Meteonosti portal, snow fell in Norilsk on September 29, and by morning a snow cover up to 3 cm thick had formed. The cyclone will soon shift to the east of Taimyr, which will lead to continued snowfall in the north of Western Siberia.

In the Moscow region, on September 30 and October 1, the weather will be formed by a northern anticyclone, while there is a possibility of frosts up to -1 degrees in both Moscow and the Moscow region.

Why winter can be colder

In recent years, forecasters have increasingly recorded long periods of blocking anticyclones that trap the frosty air over Russia. Unlike last winter, when warm westerly winds brought thaws, now the probability of such phenomena is reduced. This was announced by the forecaster of the forecasting center "Meteo" Alexander Ilyin.

It is noteworthy that the temperature strongly depends on the snow cover: the sooner the ground is covered with snow, the slower the heat will leave, and the cold will last longer, he pointed out.

According to the hydrometeorological service, a significant cold snap is expected by the end of October, especially in the central and northwestern regions, which contributes to the early formation of stable snow cover. For example, observations are already recording that daytime temperatures in Siberia and the Far East do not rise above -10 degrees, which may indicate an early onset of cold weather in other regions.