Trump is promised the Nobel Peace Prize. Analysis

US President Donald Trump has been added to the list of candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize. This year, 338 nominations were submitted, including 244 individuals and 94 organizations. Why the American leader may be awarded the prize and how likely it is — in the Izvestia article.

What can Trump be rewarded for?

• On October 10, the name of the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 is to be announced. US President Donald Trump is mentioned among the nominees. His candidacy has been linked to initiatives he has taken to ease tensions in the Middle East and advance peace talks in the Gaza Strip.

• The topic of Trump's possible nomination for the award is not new — similar conversations were raised several years ago. In 2019, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had already proposed his candidacy, explaining that the American leader was trying to establish a dialogue with the DPRK. At that time, this step was seen as an effort to reduce the threat of military conflict in the region.

• In August, after the end of the fighting on the border with Thailand, the head of the Cambodian Government, Hun Manet, addressed a letter to the committee. In it, he expressed the idea of awarding Trump the Peace Prize for his contribution to resolving the situation. According to the American leader himself, on the eve of the truce, he managed to prevent a catastrophe in just one day that could have claimed the lives of millions of people.

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The American leader is sure that he deserves it more than others.

• Politicians from several countries expressed support for Trump, including Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Israel. Despite this, the expert community notes that the decision of the Nobel Committee is unpredictable: not only political merits are taken into account, but also public reaction, as well as reputational risks for the prize itself.

• Also at the end of September, a draft resolution was registered in the register of the Verkhovna Rada, providing for the appeal of the Ukrainian parliament to the Nobel Committee with a proposal to nominate Donald Trump for the Peace Prize. The document received the support of only one representative of the Servant of the People party. Probably, the initiative was not coordinated with the office of President Vladimir Zelensky.

How likely is it to reward Trump

• The probability of awarding Trump the Nobel Peace Prize for his initiatives aimed at reducing tensions in the Middle East is assessed as extremely low. At the same time, his candidacy may be formally considered. The Nobel Committee traditionally makes decisions based on a long-term analysis of the actual results of peacekeeping activities, and not just public statements or short-term diplomatic steps. In the history of the award, it has often happened that politicians have been nominated for efforts aimed at resolving international conflicts. However, only those whose actions had a sustained, time-proven effect were able to gain recognition.

• Indeed, Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to promote peace in the Middle East and has taken steps that, according to his supporters, could bring closer a settlement of the conflict between Israel and Palestine. However, these efforts have not yet led to long-term results and have not changed the fundamental contradictions between the parties.

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Which points in the Gas plan are causing intense controversy

• The procedure for selecting a laureate involves the participation of a large number of experts and independent organizations that evaluate not only diplomatic initiatives. Candidates nominated by parliaments, universities and former laureates go through several stages of consideration, and political and humanitarian aspects are taken into account during the analysis. In the case of Trump, one of the most discussed and criticized aspects of his presidential activities is a strict migration policy. It is accompanied by restrictions on entry for citizens of a number of countries and the practice of separating migrant families at the US-Mexico border.

• Another reason why Trump may not receive the Nobel Peace Prize is his economic policy related to the imposition of trade tariffs. These actions are considered by many countries as a manifestation of pressure and economic coercion. And this, in turn, contradicts the basic principles of peacemaking and international cooperation.

• At the moment, the probability of Trump being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize is low. Despite the fact that the idea of his nomination is actively discussed in the press, the final decision is made by the committee in Norway, where the main criterion is a confirmed contribution to ending armed conflicts and developing stable peace agreements. Without clear evidence that Trump's actions have actually improved the situation in the region, the chances of him receiving this award remain minimal.

• Despite its own selection criteria and principles, in 2009 the Nobel Committee awarded the prize to Barack Obama, who served as President of the United States for less than a year and objectively failed to fully prove himself. This case showed that the committee's decisions are not always consistent. Therefore, there is still a chance to reward Trump.

What is the meaning of the Nobel Peace Prize?

The Nobel Peace Prize is an international recognition of the merits of a person or a social movement that has made a significant contribution to maintaining and strengthening world peace. Its main purpose is to promote activities aimed at preventing wars, resolving conflicts, protecting human rights, and developing international cooperation and humanitarian initiatives. The prize was established by the will of the Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel, who believed that humanity should encourage not only scientific and technical achievements, but also the moral development of society.

• Laureates can be individuals — politicians, public figures, human rights defenders — as well as entire organizations that influence the development of the world through diplomatic, humanitarian or educational projects. The selection is based on the principle of recognition of specific merits, confirmed by real results. The Committee, based in Norway, annually analyzes many candidates from all over the world and makes a decision based on the applicant's contribution to strengthening peace and cooperation.

• The purpose of this award is also to draw the attention of the international community to the most pressing issues of our time. When an award is given to a person or organization that actively works to resolve conflicts, combat violence, or protect civilians, it becomes a powerful signal to the world community and political leaders.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Vladimir Shapovalov, Project Manager at the Expert Institute for Social Research, Associate Professor at the Department of Comparative Political Science at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.