Experience and retail: which assets will be profitable to invest in in 2026

Retail investors will more often choose investments in bonds, and companies will find it easier to obtain financing, but this will take time, experts believe. At the same time, deposits remain the most popular instrument. The record high key interest rate, geopolitical uncertainty and fiscal policy have restructured the investment structure this year. But the authorities are taking systematic measures to support investments. Further measures could include expanding preferential lending programs, simplifying IPO procedures, and creating additional tax incentives for companies. This is especially true during the Month of Moscow Industry, which is October 2025. Which tools will be more profitable for retail investors next year — in the Izvestia article.

Investment climate in Russia in 2025

Retail investors will choose to invest in bonds more often in 2026, and companies will be able to obtain financing more easily. Experts predicted this for Izvestia.

In 2025, the investment climate in Russia was affected by a record high key interest rate of 21% (it has been 17% since September), which caused a slowdown in the growth of investments in fixed assets, said Alexander Abramov, head of the Institute for Institute Analysis of Applied Economic Research at the Presidential Academy. According to him, they fell from 7.4% in 2024 to an expected 1.7% in 2025.

The second important factor is geopolitical uncertainty, said Vladimir Bragin, Director of Financial Markets and Macroeconomics at Alfa Capital Management Company. However, it also creates some positive aspects for the economy, for example, a large number of government orders and a policy of import substitution.

Fiscal policy also influences investor sentiment, said Fyodor Sidorov, founder of the School of Practical Investment. Its normalization should have a disinflationary effect and create space for further rate cuts. In turn, higher inflation will push people to withdraw from deposits and even bonds, because the risk of capital loss increases, explained Ayaz Aliyev, Associate Professor of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

In general, the barriers for private individuals and institutions were sanctions restrictions, a strong ruble and a shortage of investment tools, said Albert Koroyev, head of the Stock market Experts department at BCS World Investments.

However, by the end of the year, the investment sector had entered a transformation phase, after the regulator began an easing cycle in September, lowering the rate to 17%. This is a crucial point, as the market has received a clear signal about the reversal of monetary policy.

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Which is more profitable for private investors to choose in Russia

When it comes to choosing tools, much depends on risk appetite.

— If an investor prefers reliability, then it is worth choosing deposits and bonds. Stocks should potentially bring more income, since the volatility of the stock market allows you to earn more, but there are also more risks," explained Ayaz Aliyev from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

Today, bank deposits are the simplest and most understandable tool with pre—determined conditions: amount, term and interest. If you withdraw the deposit early, the interest accumulated on it will burn out.

In addition, Russian deposits are protected by the deposit insurance system. If a bank's license is revoked, the Deposit Insurance Agency guarantees a refund of up to 1.4 million rubles in one bank.

At the same time, if deposits are usually opened for a maximum of three years, then it may take ten years before the bonds mature.

By the end of the year, deposits will maintain yields at about 15%, with a maximum of 17% as the key interest rate continues to decrease. Bonds issued by reliable issuers offer 18% per annum, sometimes the level reaches up to 25%, said Fyodor Sidorov. The shares look the most promising given the market recovery — the dividend yield of the Moscow Exchange index is about 9-11%, he added.

Along with this, the average deposit rates today are 14% per annum, which means that bonds are still more profitable for investors. The yield on government bonds will fall to 10% in 2026 (now it is 14%), follows from the consensus forecast of Izvestia. OFZ yields depend on the key rate in the same way as loan and mortgage rates. When prices for OFZs rise, their yields naturally fall, meaning that the government and companies can borrow money on the domestic market cheaper. At the same time, coupons of companies from the top echelon will not fall so much - from 17 to 14-15.5%.

There is also a decrease in interest in deposits and an increase in demand for investments in commercial real estate, said Mikhail Kostromin, partner and Commercial Director of Activo. According to his estimates, although deposits still bring in a good percentage, Russians should now make more efforts to save capital from inflation.

— As the key interest rate decreases, interest in bonds will grow due to an increase in their value, as well as interest in commercial real estate — inflation protection plays a role here. You can find interesting offers and form a portfolio of long—term securities with yields closer to +20% per annum," the expert added.

So far, private investors are expecting a rate cut to 12-13% to switch from deposits to shares (the potential for a transfer is 2-3 trillion rubles), concluded Vyacheslav Mishchenko, an expert at the Presidential Academy, visiting professor at Universidad Torcuato di Tella, author of the telegram channel Fintech for All. The forecast for next year is that 70% of new funds will go into deposits, 20% into bonds, and 10% into stocks, he summed up.

Bidding is appropriate: the volume of transactions with securities of Russian companies on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange has increased 44 times over the year.

In value terms, it amounted to 139.57 billion rubles.

How the authorities support investors

Government support for IPOs has become a positive signal for the investment climate in the country. The authorities have set an ambitious goal to bring the capitalization of the stock market to 66% of GDP by 2030 through 20 placements annually.

Going public with an IPO generally makes it easier for companies to access financing through the placement of shares and bonds. However, this comes with significant costs, especially in the early stages. Added to this is the lack of investor interest in new placements, explained Alexander Abramov from the RANEPA. Therefore, the situation is still not the most positive for an IPO.

In addition, the Government is taking systematic measures to support investments. So, since the beginning of the year, there has been an investment deduction and a depreciation premium for companies (it allows you to write off part of the expenses for the purchase or construction of real estate, for example, an office), which reduce the tax burden for depositors. The loan incentive program for small and medium-sized businesses offers loans at rates from 2.75 to 10%, depending on the industry, and preferential insurance premiums of 7.6% are provided for IT companies, Fyodor Sidorov said. This allows them to invest in their own development, and then invest in new projects.

The Moscow authorities, in turn, provide companies with support in the form of tax incentives, the search for industrial sites for new production facilities, attracting investments and entering export markets. These topics were discussed separately at the celebration of Moscow Industry Day on October 7.

Investors are also supported by a reduction in the key interest rate included in the basic budget scenario, subsidies for entering the stock exchange (24 million rubles for 12 companies) and regional investment programs, Vyacheslav Mishchenko added. The new draft budget provides for a rate of 12-13% next year.

The government encourages large issuers to enter the country's investment market, which will also have a positive impact on the economy as a whole. If the trend continues, private investors will be able to earn with the help of dividends, Mikhail Kostromin pointed out.

For the inflow of investments into fixed assets from private investors, stable financial position of companies, availability of available funds for investments, as well as predictability of conditions determining the results of investments are still necessary, Alexander Abramov pointed out. The level of protection of property rights remains equally important, he concluded.