Protest test: how Georgia will change after the scandalous elections

General local elections were held in Georgia, and the ruling party won in all municipalities. The opposition organized protests, which, however, quickly came to naught. Experts say that now the authorities have further strengthened their position, and in such circumstances, EU representatives may gradually soften their position towards Tbilisi. Izvestia investigated the situation.

The October Non-revolution

General local elections were held in Georgia on October 4. According to the CEC, the ruling Georgian Dream party won 81% of the vote in the country as a whole. She won in all municipalities, and won a solid majority in all city and district assemblies. Her candidates became mayors of all major cities. Most attention was focused on Tbilisi, where GM representative Kakha Kaladze was also confidently re-elected.

Long before these elections, the opposition announced that a decisive battle with the current authorities would take place on the evening of October 4. As a result, a large rally gathered in the center of Tbilisi at the appointed hour. The demonstrators first blocked Rustaveli Avenue, then tried to attack the presidential palace, but were stopped by riot police who used water cannons and tear gas.

Further, the intensity of passions decreased sharply. On the night of October 6, a new rally was held in Tbilisi, but there were much fewer people. Several hundred people with flags of Georgia, the European Union and Ukraine first gathered at the parliament building, then, according to tradition, blocked Rustaveli Avenue. The police reacted calmly to everything that was happening and did not interfere with the action in any way.

Opposition representatives say they will continue to protest, although the imminent overthrow of the Georgian Dream is out of the question. For example, former President Salome Zurabishvili called for further rallies, but to avoid "unconstitutional actions." "We are a peaceful protest that will remain in the history of the country, we must seek to isolate this regime from the outside," she proclaimed.

At the same time, the authorities hint that at some point they may block new opposition meetings. "The Ministry has reason to believe that any actions that take place in the coming days will be a continuation of the attempted (coup. — Izvestia). In this regard, appropriate measures will be taken to prevent threats to public order and security," the Interior Ministry said in a statement.

Depression for the opposition

I must say that the current campaign was extremely important for Georgia. The fact is that it completes a large electoral cycle that lasted about a year: during this period, parliamentary, presidential, and now local elections were held in the country. During this time, the opposition suffered several heavy defeats, while the Georgian Dream, on the contrary, strengthened its position.

Apparently, there will be several consequences of the current campaign and unsuccessful protests. On the one hand, the situation of the Georgian opposition will worsen. In recent months, many opponents of the ruling team have been imprisoned. So, back in the summer, several leaders of protest parties were sentenced to seven to eight months, and before the elections, Levan Khabeishvili, the former chairman of the United National Movement, who promised to "peacefully overthrow" the government, was in jail.

Now the police have detained five organizers of the October 4 rally. Among them is the founder of the Rustaveli Avenue movement, opera singer Paata Burchuladze, who was one of the first to call on the protesters to go to the presidential palace. All the detainees are charged with gang violence and calls to overthrow the state structure, and face up to nine years in prison under these articles.

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze says that other participants in the riots will be identified in the near future. "All those who participated in the violence, without exception, are the perpetrators of the crime related to the attempted overthrow. Accordingly, these people should expect surprises, and it won't take many days. Today we have a lot of resources for identifying individuals," he announced.

The authorities also emphasize that the proceedings against individual participants and organizers of the protests will not be limited. According to Irakli Kobakhidze, the next step is to "completely neutralize the collective United National Movement," that is, ban pro-Western opposition parties. "In four years, the Nazis have tried five times to overthrow the government, organize a Maidan and bring unrest to the country," the Prime minister explains.

At the same time, there is a noticeable despondency in the protest environment. Opposition political analyst Gia Nodia says that what happened on October 4 showed that the opposition cannot win either the elections or on the street. In addition, the authorities received a "legitimate reason for a wave of repression," because the opposition itself was talking about the imminent overthrow of the ruling party, and also initiated a violent confrontation near the presidential palace.

On the other hand, the confrontation between the Georgian authorities and the leadership of the European Union may escalate even more. The head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, and the Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, have already issued a lengthy statement claiming that the local elections were held "in a repressive environment."

Against this background, Prime Minister Kobakhidze accused foreign politicians, including the EU Ambassador to the republic, of organizing riots. The Secretary General of the ruling party and Mayor of Tbilisi, Kakha Kaladze, said that he was no longer interested in the European Union. "My position is simple: Neither Kallas nor Kos will help the opposition, because it is not supported by the Georgian people. The lords and masters of our country are its ordinary citizens," he said.

What the experts say

Caucasian scholar Artur Ataev emphasizes that the Georgian ruling party has noticeably strengthened.

— She is surviving in difficult conditions, gaining more and more political power. I note that there are quite a lot of young cadres in the party, and the leadership is circulating. In general, the Georgian Dream has repeatedly proved that it is the wealthiest and most organized political force in the country. An interesting question is about the future relations of the Georgian authorities with the Western elites. I think that Brussels will gradually become disillusioned with Saakashvili's supporters and will look for ways out for the Georgian Dream, which has proven its resilience," he explains.

Archil Sikharulidze, founder of the SIKHA Foundation Research Institute, says that a coup attempt took place in Georgia on October 4.

— The ruling party was ready for such a development, so it gave an effective response. In the future, the Georgian Dream will continue to rule the country calmly, while the opposition will remain in the deepest crisis, its involvement in political life is virtually reduced to zero. Such dominance of one political force is actually not good for the country. There is hope that some new opposition will gradually emerge that will offer something more than empty promises of a bright European future," he argues.