Experts estimated the decline in the Russian car market by the end of 2025

By the end of 2025, the Russian car market may reach 1.28 million new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. Moderate market growth is possible by the end of the year, but the total volume will be lower than last year's results. This was stated by Alexey Kalitsev, Chairman of the Automobile Manufacturers Committee of the Association of European Businesses (AEB).

"The reduction in the key interest rate, even if only slightly, has affected the growth of activity in all capital-intensive areas, including the automotive market. This will continue to boost the sales market due to the upcoming closure of high—interest deposits, which will obviously lead to the release of funds from the population," AEB quoted Kalitsev as saying on October 6.

At the same time, in July, based on the results of the first half of 2025, AEB adjusted its annual forecast for the Russian car market downward to 1.25 million units (-24% relative to 2024).

According to the committee, in the first nine months of this year, sales decreased by 23% compared to the same period in 2024 and amounted to 922.4 thousand vehicles.

The market turned out to be relatively stable in the third quarter, the expert noted. Despite the end of the holiday period, September sales results did not show rapid growth, although an active discussion in the press regarding the upcoming increase in recycling provided significant support in the second half of September, setting a trend for potential growth for the next quarter, Kalitsev noted.

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Earlier that day, it was reported that by the end of the 40th week of 2025 (from September 29 to October 5), 41.3 thousand new passenger cars were sold in Russia. This is the best weekly result this year.

On October 2, it became known that the Lada Granta family and models based on it led the Russian car market in September. In early autumn, sales totaled 11.9 thousand units, which is a quarter less than a year ago, and Granta's market share dropped below the 10% threshold.

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