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- Range period: will the Russian Federation and the United States be able to avoid a nuclear arms race
Range period: will the Russian Federation and the United States be able to avoid a nuclear arms race
The restoration of the INF Treaty in its original form is impossible, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The ministry stressed that Moscow tried to save this agreement, but the actions of the United States forced the Russian Federation to abandon the moratorium. At the same time, another START-3 treaty still has certain prospects. Vladimir Putin's proposal to extend the validity of this agreement has already been called a "good idea" by Donald Trump. However, the United States' European allies are actively developing their own long—range missiles - the EU also needs to be involved in the dialogue, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's international Affairs committee, told Izvestia. The White House has not yet specified its attitude to the START-3 dialogue, but a clear response from the United States can be expected by the end of the year, while Washington is busy with internal problems, experts say.
Is it even possible to restore the INF Treaty
Maintaining strategic stability remains one of the key areas of relations between Russia and the United States. However, in recent years, arms control, including non-nuclear weapons, has been in crisis mainly due to unilateral actions by the United States. For example, in 2019, Washington withdrew from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, signed in 1987. And in 2020, the United States left the Open Skies treaty.
— Obviously, there can be no question of restoring the INF Treaty in its original form. It was developed and concluded in different circumstances, and also contained practical measures and agreements related to the now—eliminated nomenclature of the ground-based INF treaty, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
Disarmament of the missile system in accordance with the Treaty between the USSR and the USA on the Elimination of their Intermediate-range and Shorter-range Missiles (INF), depot of missiles of the OTP-22 and OTP-23 classes, Saryozeka range of the Kazakh SSR, 1988
The Foreign Ministry stressed that it was Moscow that was trying to save this agreement. However, the United States has moved to the advanced deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range ground-based missiles. For example, starting in 2026, American missile systems will appear in Germany. This forced Russia to abandon the unilateral moratorium on the deployment of similar weapons that had been in effect for several years and begin implementing military-technical countermeasures.
The United States is also considering the possibility of transferring Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, which fall into the category of medium-range missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already noted that the adoption of this decision will lead to the destruction of positive trends in relations between Russia and the United States. At the same time, the appearance of these weapons in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not change the situation on the battlefield, Russian officials emphasize.
It's not just the actions of the United States that are causing concern. For example, the United Kingdom and Germany, which did not participate in the INF Treaty, are jointly developing missiles with a range of 2,000 km. Paris and London are working on updating their nuclear arsenals. Vladimir Putin, in his message to the Federal Assembly in 2023, noted: Moscow must understand "what the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, such as France and the United Kingdom, are claiming, and how we will take into account their strategic arsenals, that is, the combined strike potential of the alliance."
Russia considers it important to involve European countries in a dialogue on global security, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia.
— In any case, it is necessary to involve sensible people in the dialogue, I hope there are still such people in Europe. Dialogue is a form of positive approach to all the deep and terrible problems that the West is currently inventing, primarily NATO and Europe. Therefore, there is no need to abandon the dialogue," the senator said.
Sooner or later, it will be necessary to build a new architecture for the control of medium-range strike weapons, while expanding not only the number of parties involved, but also the coverage of weapons systems, both by type (for example, to solve the problem of the intersection of the classes "cruise missile" and "strike UAV"), and by basing. It was a normal first step to limit oneself to ground-based systems, but "air" and "sea" missiles also need to be taken into account somehow. Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, told Izvestia about this.
"In the future, the emergence of long—range land—based weapons will become an additional dimension of strategic threats to Russia, but in parallel, appropriate systems are being developed in our country," the expert noted.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the plenary session of the XXII Annual Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on October 2.
As Vladimir Putin noted at the Valdai plenary session, Russia today possesses many modern high-tech weapons systems, including the new Oreshnik missile system, which may be followed by new ones.
According to Stefanovic, a relatively stable balance can be achieved, but without a superstructure in the form of arms control, there is always the threat of a spiral into an arms race and unintended escalation.
U.S. reaction to Russia's START-3 proposals
Against this background, the main nuclear arms control agreement, the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START—3), signed by Russia and the United States in Prague in 2010, is gradually expiring. It was concluded for 10 years with the possibility of extension for five years. With the arrival of the Biden administration in 2021, the parties took advantage of the extension opportunity.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and former US President Barack Obama (from right to left) during the signing ceremony of the Treaty on Measures for Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START), Prague, Czech Republic, April 8, 2010
However, in February 2023, Moscow suspended the treaty due to threats from the United States. However, the contract has not been terminated, the parties continue to adhere to its basic terms. However, the document is less than six months away from expiration: START-3 expires on February 5 next year.
Russia is ready to comply with key restrictions under the treaty for another year, Vladimir Putin said at an operational meeting with members of the Security Council on September 22. According to the Russian leader, it is necessary to try to maintain the status quo, which exists precisely thanks to the START Treaty, in order not to provoke a strategic arms race. The United States, being the second party to the treaty, should "act in a similar way."
"A complete rejection of the legacy of this agreement would be an erroneous and short—sighted step from many points of view, which, in our opinion, would negatively affect the achievement of the goals of the Treaty on the Non—Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons," the president said.
There has been no concrete reaction from the American side yet. On October 5, Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin's initiative a "good idea." However, there has not yet been a clear agreement or refusal.
The United States is currently experiencing tumultuous domestic political processes related to attempts to adopt a temporary budget document. This event attracts almost all departmental efforts, all the attention of parliamentarians. Most likely, this is why the American side does not offer a detailed response to the Russian proposals.
"I think there will be some reaction from Washington before the end of the year, as the Trump administration will sooner or later return to work on the Russian dossier," Ivan Loshkarev said.
The political scientist, however, believes that the probability of a positive response is low, since Trumpists view the agreements on strategic stability as burdensome restrictions on American foreign policy. Perhaps Trump will propose some kind of "exchange" for START-3 agreements with Russia in other areas.
At the same time, the Russian-American strategic dialogue is not currently underway, the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed.
— As noted in the statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 22 on the "post-START treaty" topic, substantive cooperation of this kind will be possible "with the formation of conditions for its full-scale resumption and taking into account the entire range of efforts to normalize bilateral relations and eliminate fundamental security contradictions." We will strictly adhere to this line," the ministry told Izvestia.
However, there are already those who wish to organize a platform for negotiations. In preparation for START-3, Russia and the United States held seven rounds of talks in Geneva, Switzerland. Switzerland is now also ready to provide a platform for dialogue between Moscow and Washington on arms control, the confederation's Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
— Switzerland has a long tradition of providing good offices in support of international dialogue, including on issues related to arms control. As in the past, Switzerland remains ready to offer its services and provide a platform for negotiations, if the interested parties so wish," the diplomatic department said.
However, Switzerland is unlikely to be considered by Moscow as a suitable place, given that Bern sided with Ukraine in 2022 and joined most of the EU sanctions.
In Europe, Russia's START-3 proposal was positively assessed. Hans Neuhoff, an MEP and member of the European Parliament's Security and Defense Committee, told Izvestia that in the short term it could help stabilize and reduce the risk of an immediate nuclear arms race.
— Without such restrictions, there would be a high probability that both sides would rapidly expand their strategic arsenals. The proposal provides a valuable opportunity to prepare for negotiations on a subsequent agreement," the politician said.
Neuhoff stated that the EU's direct participation in the START negotiations is currently unrealistic. The future of arms control will largely depend on whether it is possible to create new multipolar structures that go beyond the bilateral format, and here Europe could play a constructive role in the long term.
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