Fill barrels: OPEC+ has decided to increase production again

Representatives of eight OPEC+ volunteer countries decided to continue increasing production in November by 137 thousand barrels per day relative to October. Experts believe that the alliance made this decision because it is in line with its long-term policy aimed at gradually increasing production. In their opinion, the market will react cautiously to this news. For Russia, increasing production will increase oil supplies, but the effect on the budget will not be so significant against the background of lower world prices.

What was agreed at the OPEC+ meeting

At an online meeting on October 5, the ministers of the eight OPEC+ volunteer countries discussed the current situation on the oil market and decided to continue increasing production in October by 137 thousand barrels per day relative to October. This is stated in the message of the cartel.

"Taking into account the stable prospects for the global economy and the current favorable market indicators reflected in low oil reserves, the eight participating countries decided to adjust production by 137 thousand barrels per day, compared with additional voluntary adjustments of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023," the alliance said in a statement.

The next meeting of the eight countries will be held on November 2, 2025.

It is worth noting that in October, compared to September, Russia and Saudi Arabia assumed the largest quota — both countries increased production by 42 thousand barrels, in November the leaders of the OPEC+ alliance will increase production by 41 thousand barrels.

Iraq will increase it by 18 thousand (+1 thousand barrels compared to October), the United Arab Emirates — by 12 thousand, Kuwait — by 10 thousand (-1 thousand barrels), Kazakhstan — by 7 thousand (+1 thousand barrels), Algeria — by 4 thousand, Oman — by 4 thousand barrels per day (+1 thousand barrels).

According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, the alliance's decision was expected. She recalled that following the last meeting, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, in an interview with Rossiya 24 TV channel, commenting on the cartel's decision to increase production by 137 thousand barrels in October, stressed that this increase would amount to 1/12 of the 1.65 million barrels of voluntary reductions announced in April 2023.

— Thus, today's decision was quite expected. The Alliance clearly intends to compensate for these voluntary reductions over the year," the source said.

What was the oil market like on the eve of the meeting

A month ago, when a similar decision was made, the oil market reacted rather cautiously. On the eve of the meeting on September 5, Brent was trading at $65.5 per barrel, on September 8, after the meeting, $66.39 per barrel of raw materials was given. In general, the price of oil in September fluctuated in the range of $66-67 per barrel.

However, at the end of the month, the price of "black gold" exceeded the mark of $ 70 per barrel. The quotes were supported by statements made by Alexander Novak the day before that Russia would impose a ban on the export of diesel fuel to non-producers by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the ban on gasoline exports for all participants, except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements, will be extended until the end of the year.

— In addition, prices were supported by a statement by representatives of NATO countries on their readiness to respond to airspace violations, increasing the likelihood of new sanctions against the Russian oil industry. At the end of September, the Boracay tanker was detained by the French authorities, which also added to the tension, Kosareva recalls.

However, the decline in quotations was influenced by information from Bloomberg, which reported that eight OPEC+ countries plan to approve an increase in oil production by 500,000 barrels per day. The OPEC secretariat immediately responded to this, refuting these reports.

Nevertheless, the news managed to have an impact on the quotes. The price of Brent dropped to $64 per barrel and did not rise above $65 per barrel in October.

About the OPEC+ decision and the oil market

Tamara Safonova, General Director of the independent analytical agency NAANS-MEDIA, recalled that oil demand in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 106.4 million barrels per day, while the expected increase in production in November by OPEC+ countries by 137 thousand barrels is only 0.1% of global demand, which will not have a significant impact on the global market. the market.

"In addition, the announced increase in production by OPEC+ countries is necessary to balance the global market and ensure export growth against the background of declining oil reserves in the United States," she concluded.

According to the American Petroleum Institute, in September 2025, crude stocks in the United States decreased for the third week in a row: on September 12 — by 9.28 million barrels, on September 19 — by 0.6 million barrels, on September 26 — by another 3.67 million barrels.

Ekaterina Kosareva also believes that the market will react cautiously to the decision of the eight OPEC+ countries.

— The further dynamics of oil prices will depend more on the geopolitical situation in the world and restrictions on Russia. Increasing production will allow domestic oil companies to increase supplies, but the effect on the budget will be restrained against the background of lower world prices, she believes.

According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the alliance made this decision because it is in line with its long-term policy aimed at gradually increasing production.

— Due to the expansion of supply from non-OPEC+ countries, as well as against the background of relatively unstable growth in global demand for "black gold", the alliance has recently been losing its market niche. At the same time, its restrictive measures had less and less impact on the price environment. That is, the member countries of the deal lost markets, but did not compensate for this by increasing their profits due to higher oil prices. Hence, there is virtually no alternative solution — to start increasing production. In other words, there is no question of increasing quotas or not. The only question is how fast to do it," he said.

Earlier, a number of sources allegedly predicted an increase in alliance production by 500,000 barrels per day at once, which even led to a slight decrease in oil prices last week.

— The current careful decision may, on the contrary, lead to an upward price adjustment, but it is unlikely to be too significant. — Valery Andrianov noted.

That is, the market expects OPEC+ to increase production, is ready for this, and has already included it in current quotes. And the volume of 137 thousand barrels fits into these rules of the game and will not lead to any noticeable price fluctuations, the expert concluded.