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- To believe the deferred: the budget of the Russian Federation may not receive 26.9 billion rubles of oil and gas revenues
To believe the deferred: the budget of the Russian Federation may not receive 26.9 billion rubles of oil and gas revenues
The federal budget of the Russian Federation in October 2025 may not receive 26.9 billion rubles of additional oil and gas revenues, the press service of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation told Izvestia. Izvestia investigated whether the Ministry of Finance plans to compensate for the lost funds through other sources of income or cost reductions, as well as how the current situation differs from similar periods in previous years.
Redistribution of funds
Fiscal policy in Russia is based on a system of special rules aimed at reducing the economy's dependence on fluctuations in energy prices, the Finance Ministry told Izvestia. This is what makes it possible to maintain the stability of public finances and ensure their long-term equilibrium.
"In October of this year, the expected volume of lost oil and gas revenues is projected at 26.9 billion rubles, taking into account the adjustment of oil and gas revenues, the volume of sales of foreign currency and gold in accordance with the norms of budget rules in order to compensate for lost oil and gas revenues in October of this year will amount to 13.9 billion rubles. Compensation for the lost volume of oil and gas revenues in October 2025 is planned to be carried out in full at the expense of previously acquired foreign currency and gold," the Ministry of Finance said.
This cannot be called an accident, as it is explained by significant pressure on oil and gas revenues, Sergey Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service, explained in an interview with Izvestia. This pressure is formed both by the sanctions restrictions, due to which buyers demand noticeable discounts, and by the general correction of world oil and gas prices.
According to him, NRA analysts are recording a gradual but limited recovery in the price of oil, which remains in the range of $70-80 per barrel, while the strong ruble reduces the volume of foreign exchange earnings in ruble terms. At the same time, it is worth paying attention to the positive aspect: the exchange rate of the national currency is not supported by artificial devaluation, which makes it possible to contain inflationary pressure. At the same time, the observed dynamics only continues the trends typical for 2024.
— For example, in August 2024, oil and gas revenues fell by more than a quarter year-on-year, and the cumulative shortfall in the first eight months of 2024 was more than 20%. Thus, we are dealing with a structural deficit," the expert noted.
Non-resource income
Borrowings and funds from the National Welfare Fund are still used as the main sources of additional funds, Sergey Grishunin noted. However, the importance of non-oil and gas revenues is gradually increasing. In particular, according to data for the first half of 2024, the personal income tax brought more than a third more funds to regional budgets compared to the same period a year earlier. In other words, such dynamics reflect the growing role of alternative, non-oil and gas-related incomes.
— This indicates an increase in the tax base related to the incomes of the population and the development of the domestic economy, — said Sergey Grishunin. — Strengthening the regional revenue base creates an important compensation income for the federal budget in the context of continued pressure on oil and gas revenues due to moderate oil prices, the strengthening of the ruble and geopolitical problems.
The current conditions facilitate the redirection of some financial resources to regional budgets. It was concluded that such a redistribution has the potential to become a long-term feature of fiscal policy.
In 2025, revenues from the oil and gas industry turned out to be significantly less than projected, Vladimir Klimanov, director of the IPEI Regional Policy Center at the Presidential Academy, confirmed in an interview with Izvestia. This is explained by two factors: on the one hand, the global oil price turned out to be lower than expected when drawing up last year's budget, and on the other, sanctions limited export supplies, which automatically reduced revenues to the state budget.
— It is possible to compensate for the loss of income due to the growth of non-oil and gas revenues. To do this, it is necessary to look for internal reserves: to increase labor productivity, stimulate economic growth through the launch of new industries, the expert believes. — A similar effect can be achieved with monetary policy easing and with active investments in industries that can yield returns in the short term.
The Russian authorities intend to strengthen support for non-primary exports, and by 2030 their volume should increase by at least two thirds compared to 2023. President Vladimir Putin noted that this is not just about increasing the physical volume of products, but about expanding the supply of high-grade goods and the entry of domestic companies into new world markets. He stressed that an important direction will be the formation of full-scale technological and industrial partnerships with other countries, covering the entire life cycle of goods and services.
The export structure is gradually changing: supplies of finished high-tech products are increasing. At the same time, the goal is to reduce the share of imports to 17% of GDP by 2030. In 1999, this figure was 26%, and in 2023 it was 19% of GDP (approximately 32 trillion rubles). At the same time, the president stressed that the reduction should take place through the development of own production, and not through artificial barriers.
Earlier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov pointed out that in recent years the budget has managed to reduce its dependence on oil and gas revenues: previously, they accounted for almost half of revenues, but now their share has decreased to about a quarter. However, the Minister also drew attention to the need to adjust the budget rule in such a way as to minimize the impact of external factors.
In particular, it was about increasing the liquid assets of the NWF to an amount sufficient to cover expenses for three years, even with unfavorable conditions in the oil market. The Ministry of Finance believes that the spending policy should meet the new conditions, which means the need for a more careful attitude to funds and striving for increased efficiency in the use of each budget ruble.
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