Cartel verdict: The United States and Venezuela are on the verge of a military clash
The United States may use drones, high-tech artificial intelligence systems, Hellfire missiles and precision guided bombs to strike Venezuela, experts interviewed by Izvestia say. At the same time, the United States, according to them, may well even launch a full-fledged ground operation. At least five American F-35 fighter jets violated the borders of Venezuela's airspace on October 2, according to the authorities of the Bolivarian Republic. At the same time, the media reported on the readiness of the US military to move from Puerto Rico towards Venezuela to launch a ground operation to seize ports and airports.
The confrontation between the United States and Venezuela
The United States' fight against Latin American drug cartels has become a "non—international armed conflict," as the US Congress received such a notification from Donald Trump this week.
In fact, the president put drug traffickers on a par with terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda (banned in the Russian Federation) and gave the Pentagon carte blanche for military operations within the framework of legislation on armed conflict.
The US Navy destroyer USS Stockdale at the naval base at the entrance to the Panama Canal in Panama City
This decision by Donald Trump was a continuation of the operation involving American warships in the Caribbean Sea, launched by the United States at the end of August. Since then, at least 17 people have been killed, whom Washington accuses of transporting drugs to the North American state.
Along with the increase in the number of warships near the waters of Venezuela, Caracas is detecting American fighter jets. According to Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, at least five F-35s flew over Venezuela on October 2.
An F-35 fighter jet of the United States Marine Corps takes off from the Roosevelt Roads Military Base in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.
At the same time, attacks on alleged cartel members were criticized inside the United States. Trump's opponents are asking why attempts at drug trafficking are not stopped by the Coast Guard, the main maritime law enforcement agency of the United States, and also why deadly strikes were chosen to solve the problem at once, bypassing more humane measures. In defense of his strategy, Trump claims that there are enough drugs on each ship to kill 25,000 Americans, so this is a national threat.
— The main purpose of the escalatory steps by the United States is to undermine the position of President Nicolas Maduro inside the country. At this stage, the build—up of a military presence near Venezuela looks primarily like a tool of psychological pressure on the leadership of the republic and its citizens, but it can also take on a material appearance, says Timur Almukov, an expert on Latin America.
Scenarios for the development of armed conflict
Attacks on Venezuelan territory may begin in the coming weeks, four sources confirmed to the American channel NBC News at once. According to them, first of all, scenarios for the use of drones to attack members and leaders of drug cartels in the republic, as well as their laboratories, are being discussed.
The United States is likely to use drones, high-tech systems with artificial intelligence, and possibly Hellfire missiles and precision-guided bombs that Washington previously supplied to Israel for their operations in Gaza, American political analyst Jeremy Kuzmarov tells Izvestia. An American invasion of Venezuela could lead to a long-term conflict, he argues.
American MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance and strike UAV
Another scenario, citing military analysts, is cited by the Washington Examiner newspaper. According to her, the American troops stationed in Puerto Rico are ready for a ground operation, which may include the capture and retention of key strategic facilities such as ports and airfields on the territory of the Latin American republic.
— The main disagreement now is whether it will look like a large-scale operation or a more dodgy one, with large defensive deployments, that is, attacking Venezuela from a distance and creating a perimeter to prevent retaliatory actions. Of the two scenarios, the second one seems more likely. To conduct a full—scale operation, the United States does not need to redeploy a large strike group, it is enough to launch most of the airstrikes on Venezuela from the continental United States," says Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.
American technicians hang Hellfire missiles on the pylon of an attack helicopter
The path of escalation that the United States can take depends more on the real goals and objectives of the operation, the expert continues. If we are really talking about fighting cartels, then it is enough to use drones and take control of the ports and airfields of Caracas. If the purpose of the operation is regime change, then it may be necessary to deploy large ground forces on Venezuelan territory.
The fact that Trump's actions are aimed specifically at combating drug trafficking, and not at Nicolas Maduro himself, whose tenure as president is not considered legitimate in the United States, raises some doubts among experts. Venezuela is far from leading the supply of drugs to the North American country: the largest amount of cocaine still comes from Colombia, while deadly fentanyl is mainly imported from Mexico.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro at a press conference in Caracas
An indirect confirmation of Trump's intentions to oust Maduro through this operation may also be the fact that he declared the Venezuelan president the leader of the Cartel of the Suns and promised a reward of $ 50 million for his capture. A number of foreign experts claim that such an organization does not actually exist, however, they do not deny that there may be agreements between the political elite of Venezuela and cartels from Colombia, according to which the former receive kickbacks, covering the passage of drugs through their territory for further export to other countries.
— As far as I understand the logic of American Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the main ideologue of the invasion, he plans to present Trump with an instant victory plan, where in the first days of the conflict the top leadership of Venezuela will be destroyed and the maximum number of air defense points will be suppressed, and a brief ground operation will quickly put his man in the president's chair. Trump is unlikely to agree to another plan.: Whatever the US military advantage, a protracted campaign will be a blow not so much to the budget as to Trump's reputation as a winner, regardless of what results the operation will bring in the distant future," said Egor Lidovskaya, Director General of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Center.
The balance of power
Venezuela will be able to withstand American drone strikes with the help of Russian and Iranian air defenses, experts interviewed by Izvestia claim.
— The Venezuelan army has carried out several waves of upgrades with the help of Russia, China and Iran. Venezuela has air defense systems and man-portable missile systems and is capable of repelling a series of attacks from the air. It will be extremely difficult for the United States to ensure full control over the vast territory of Venezuela, which consists of two Germany or two France. We can expect a series of targeted amphibious attacks aimed at provoking chaos and panic in Venezuela, the navy has quite experienced marines trained for amphibious and assault operations. The armed forces of Venezuela can be considered as the most ideologized in the spirit of Bolivarian patriotism," says Andrei Pyatakov, a leading researcher at the ILA RAS.
The Su-30 multirole fighter of the Venezuelan Air Force
The Venezuelan authorities have been preparing for a potential escalation with the United States for a long time, Yegor Lidovskaya believes. The air defense systems supplied by China and the Russian Federation are capable of destroying the latest generation of fighter jets and ballistic missiles, however, in a war of attrition, Caracas has few chances, the expert believes.
The American edition of Newsweek estimated that 13,000 US military aircraft account for only 229 Venezuelan aircraft — this includes Russian Su-30, Iranian drones and American F-16s of the 1980s. Between 2006 and 2011, Caracas purchased 23 fighter jets, 12 anti-aircraft missiles, eight helicopters and 44 surface-to–air missile systems from Moscow. However, foreign experts believe that the Venezuelan army has not been trained to use this equipment en masse.
The launcher of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system at the parade in Caracas
The financial investments of the Venezuelan army in its modernization are also incomparable with the United States. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Caracas spent about $4 billion, while the United States on average puts about $895 billion into the defense budget, according to Global Firepower.
— Caracas has repeatedly stated its readiness for negotiations and a peaceful settlement of the contradictions, but these calls remain unanswered in the White House. Marco Rubio's position on Venezuela is characterized by fierce intransigence: Even during his senatorial career, he was one of the key architects of the sanctions policy against the South American country. If his voice is really decisive in decision—making today, then the space for diplomatic maneuver remains extremely limited," Timur Almukov sums up.
Russia is not interested in destabilizing the situation in Venezuela, and Caracas and Moscow have a strategic partnership. Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed concern about US military activity near Venezuela's territorial waters, noting that Moscow "stands in solidarity with both the people and the government of Venezuela."
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