They don't charge money for the demand: what happened to new car sales in September

Sales of new passenger cars in September increased by only 424 units compared to August. The top ten market leaders have changed. Izvestia found out what to expect next.

"The favorable price period is ending"

By the end of September this year, 122.7 thousand new passenger cars were sold in Russia, which is 18.7% less than in the same month of 2024, the analytical agency Autostat reported. The September result exceeded the August result of this year by only 424 cars (0.35%).

Sales increased significantly in the last week of September, said Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of Autostat. He named several factors stimulating demand: information about the cancellation of preferential recycling for cars with a capacity above 160 hp, a reduction in the Central Bank rate, as well as a decrease in dealer stocks, a decrease in discounts and an increase in car prices.

— About 80% of last year's stock has been sold out, the remainder is estimated at about 100 thousand cars. The period of the most favorable prices is coming to an end, and discounts are being reduced. In September, the average cost of a new car was 3.34 million rubles. This is 4% more than in August, and 6% higher than last September," said Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat.

He noted that only 40% of the cars sold in 9 months were produced this year, the share of last year's cars was 55%, and the share of those produced in 2023 was 3.8%.

Ilya Petrov, Director of Retail Sales at Avilon AG, recalled that the low activity of customers in the first 10 days of September was traditionally due to the "school" season. After the 15th, buyers became more active, but they could not compensate for the low figures of the first decade of September, the expert noted.

The news of the new recycling formula from November 1 has created an absolutely clear benchmark for the market, says Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto.

— We are witnessing a classic flow of demand from one period to another: some of the sales that could have taken place in September were postponed or, conversely, shifted to October. Thus, the recycling factor itself, contrary to growth expectations, played a restraining role in September, shifting consumer activity by the time the new rules came into force," she told Izvestia.

Movement on the leaderboard

Lada retains its leadership in the Russian market by a significant margin with a result of 26.4 thousand cars sold. Its market share exceeded 21% of the total at the beginning of autumn, but a year ago it was above 23%.

Haval has again become the most popular among foreign brands, with cars selling 16.7 thousand units in the first month of autumn. Geely is on the third line (9741 units), followed by the Belarusian brand Belgee (8346 units). Chery, previously one of the top three, dropped to fifth place in September with an indicator of 8023 cars sold.

Changan (5865 units), Solaris (4028 units), Toyota (3308 units), Omoda (3182 units) and Jetour (3087 units) also entered the top ten in September. Toyota does not officially supply its cars in Russia, but it is among the top ten in the country's market for the second month in a row due to alternative import channels.

Seven brands out of the top 10 showed negative dynamics in September, with sales of Chery and Changan falling by half. Growth was recorded at Toyota (+48.8%), Solaris (+102%) and Belgee (+128.2%).

In the first nine months of 2025, 895.9 thousand new passenger cars were sold in the Russian Federation. This is 22.4% less than in January — September last year. Positive dynamics were recorded for Toyota, Solaris, Belgee and Jetour, Omoda and Geely sank the most.

Toyota's sales growth demonstrates the intensification of alternative imports in anticipation of increased recycling. According to Autostat, the share of global brands in the Russian market has reached 12%, although for a long time it was below 10%. In October, their share may grow to 15%, predicts Sergey Tselikov.

The movement in the list of leaders is caused by the fact that buyers are not rigidly tied to a particular brand and choose what is more profitable to buy at the moment, says Sergey Udalov.

"The Chery and Tenet brands are like communicating vessels. Chery's sales volume and share will decrease, while Tenet's will grow. At some point, they will switch places," said Sergey Tselikov. According to him, a similar pattern is observed for the Geely and Belgee brands.

Why did Vesta sink

The model rating is traditionally led by Lada Granta — they sold 11.9 thousand units, which is a quarter less than a year ago. The share of Grants dropped below the 10% threshold. The Haval Jolion remains the most popular foreign car, with a total of 6,154 cars. For the second month in a row, the crossover surpasses Lada Vesta in sales (5,997 units), which is in third place. The top five includes two crossovers — the affordable Belgee X50 and the rather expensive Geely Monjaro, 5,547 and 4,043 units. Half of the leading models in September showed a decrease in sales, while Lada Vesta showed the most (43%). The Belgee X70 crossover demonstrated the best positive dynamics, its sales increased by more than six times due to its low base.

—Lada Vesta sank primarily due to the availability of the model itself, as well as its high price positioning. Geely Monjaro was helped by good accessibility, market prominence and a balanced pricing position," Ilya Petrov believes.

No money for a car

The situation in the automotive market remains difficult and does not contribute to the activity of buyers, says Igor Morzharetto, partner at Autostat.

— Despite the reduction in the key interest rate, car loans are still quite expensive. In addition, only about a third of loan applications are currently approved. The expectation of a revision of the rules for calculating recycling has certainly "spurred" some potential buyers to purchase a car, and this factor will have an even more noticeable effect in October. However, there is not only a desire to purchase a car, but also financial resources are needed for this. But many potential buyers don't have them," the expert noted.

Amid expectations of an increase in recycling, sales may show a slight increase in October, at about 10 percent, according to Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem.

— There will be no repeat of the situation last year, when, also due to the increase in this collection, people massively ran to car dealerships. Those who wanted to buy a car have already done so. And those who might like to purchase it now, most often simply do not have the necessary funds for it," Maxim Kadakov noted.

Nervous or calm

October is likely to become a month of artificially inflated demand, Irina Frank believes. Buyers and dealers will strive to conclude deals before the new, more expensive formula for calculating scrap collection comes into force.

— This will cause a short-term surge in registrations, especially for models with powerful engines, which will rise in price the most. However, this growth will be leveraged at the expense of future periods. There is a high probability of a sharp cooling of the market in November and December. The main volume of demand, stimulated by the inevitable rise in prices, will be exhausted in October. Against this background, even the traditional New Year's Eve activity and a possible further reduction in the key rate are unlikely to be able to fully compensate for the decline," Irina Frank told Izvestia.

Ilya Petrov believes that October will be calm, at the level of September. From the second half of November, demand will grow and will remain until the end of the year against the background of unambiguous indexation of scrap collection from January 1 (the decision to increase this fee annually was made last fall) and a possible increase in VAT, the director of retail sales AG Avilon is confident.