Free fall: what is happening to global oil prices
On October 1, oil prices continued to decline after a slight increase of $65.4 per barrel of Brent. What will be the average oil price by the end of the year and what will most affect the quotes — read the Izvestia article with estimates from experts and analysts.
Sensitive drop
The oil price continues its gradual decline. Experts agree that the factors affecting energy prices are now a tangle of contradictions from economics, politics, and market expectations.
The average price of Brent benchmark oil for the first 8 months of 2025 was $70 per barrel. The average price of Urals crude oil on the world crude oil markets (Mediterranean and Rotterdam) was $59.15 per barrel in January–August 2025, and $69.88 per barrel in January–August 2024.
In the first eight months of 2025, the decrease in the price of Urals crude oil relative to the figures for 2024 amounted to 15%, and the decrease in oil and gas budget revenues was 20%, recalls Tamara Safonova, associate professor at the Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology at the Presidential Academy.
"Oil prices in the remaining months of 2025 will be under pressure from geopolitical factors, trade wars that affect the transformation of supply chains and changes in the volume of fuel used for cargo transportation, restrictive measures for the production and export of oil and petroleum products, as well as the ability to accumulate resources to stabilize supplies in local markets," she says.
Reaction to geopolitical conflicts
The situation in the Middle East is no longer perceived by market participants as acutely as it was a year ago, says Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam.
— At the same time, the issue of Iran and the Iranian nuclear program is still open. Israel also continues to involve other countries in the international conflict (for example, the recent strikes on Qatar). To a certain extent, Israel believes that it has a "free hand" and can act more freely than before. Therefore, it is impossible, for example, to rule out a repeat of attacks on Iran, although so far this scenario looks less likely," he says.
Also, according to the expert, tensions around Venezuela have begun to rise.
— Venezuela produces just over 900,000 barrels per day and is part of the OPEC cartel. The US actions against Venezuela can be assessed as a negative signal that enhances cooperation between Russia and China. The United States extended the tariff truce with China until November 09. A final trade deal may be concluded during this period. In the third quarter of 2025, the United States began threatening countries that buy Russian energy with trade duties, and trade duties on imports of goods from India have already been increased by 25%, the source told Izvestia.
According to Finam's forecasts, oil demand in China is likely to grow by 17.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year. "Thus, the average demand for Chinese oil in 2025 will be 16.85 million barrels per day, and in 2026 it may increase to 17.05 million barrels per day," Dudin added.
OPEC's decision+
OPEC+ countries are agreeing to increase oil production. According to unofficial sources, we are talking about 500 thousand barrels per day in November.
— Official representatives of OPEC+ member countries do not confirm this information, but even a two-fold excess of October levels in November will provoke a sharp increase in supply, which means an oversupply. There is a bias towards the demand market. Further price drops are inevitable. However, OPEC+ member countries are now ready to sacrifice revenue in order to maintain and increase market share," says Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of the VMT Consult analytical agency.
What about the stocks
According to the American Petroleum Institute, oil reserves in the United States continue to decrease for the third week in a row. On September 12, the most significant drop was recorded — by 9.285 million barrels, on September 19 — by 0.6 million barrels, and on September 26 — by another 3.67 million barrels.
Limited oil reserves are a factor in rising prices, says Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies.
— Meanwhile, prices are falling even against the background of a decrease in inventories due to a reduction in consumption caused by the partial shutdown of the American authorities. So, 0.75 million U.S. government employees have been on vacation since today, and the daily downtime is estimated at $400 million," she explains.
At the same time, the principled nature of the authorities puts the political factor at the forefront, the expert notes. "There is too much uncertainty — with the same degree of probability, the problem can be solved tonight or in two weeks," says Orlova.
Forecasts
In the absence of blocking key supply arteries and eliminating disruptive actions against the infrastructure of fuel and energy facilities on the world market, the price of the Brent benchmark grade by the end of 2025 may demonstrate a range of $65-75 per barrel in the baseline scenario, Tamara Safonova suggests. "But any actions to escalate conflicts in key regions of extraction, processing and transportation of goods can trigger a break from current values towards significant growth," she said.
According to Finam, the average price for Brent crude oil will be in the range of $69-70 per barrel, for Urals crude oil — $56-59 per barrel.
— We believe that this assessment is moderately optimistic. In this scenario, the budget received over 6 trillion rubles in 8 months of this year, and at current price levels, there is a high probability of fulfilling the plan for oil and gas revenues, which this year, we recall, should amount to 8.6 trillion rubles," commented Nikolai Dudchenko.
Vasily Tanurkov, senior director of the ACRA Corporate ratings group, expects a price of $68 per barrel of Brent by the end of 2025 and $58 per Urals.
Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Energy. The Ministry of Finance recommended contacting the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the rest of the addressees did not respond at the time of publication.
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