Domclick experts gave a forecast on the impact of differentiated rates on the "Family mortgage"

If the rates for the preferential Family Mortgage program are differentiated depending on the number of children in the family, more than 1.5 million families may lose access to it. This was told by Domclick experts who analyzed the demand for preferential "Family mortgages" among different categories of borrowers.

One of the considered options for changing the program provides for a rate of 12% for the first child, 6% for the second and 4% for the third and further children. However, according to experts, in this case, many families in need of better housing conditions may be left without access to a preferential rate.

According to the latest population census, there are 11.6 million families in Russia with a child under the age of 7, of which 4 million are families in which such a child is the only one. Thus, about 2.8 million families, with the exception of those who have already used the program (1.2 million families), may lose access to the program, experts say.

After analyzing the issuance of a "Family mortgage" in Sberbank in 2025, Domclick experts estimated that among those who had already taken out a mortgage at 6%, about 20% of borrowers were highly likely to be unable to obtain a loan, since at a rate of 12% their debt burden would be more than 80%.

"Differentiating preferential rates on a "Family mortgage" depending on the number of children will lead to the loss of some mortgage borrowers, especially those who will not be able to meet the debt burden limit of 80%. Thus, the overall availability of the program, due to non-compliance with the 80% personal income tax threshold, will decrease by 10%," said Alexey Leipi, director of Sberbank's Domclick department.

In addition, a family mortgage under the new terms may become unprofitable for potential borrowers due to a reduction in the Central Bank's key interest rate. So, if by the end of 2026 the key rate is less than 10%, those who were forced to take out a family mortgage at 12% will find themselves in an environment where the market rate will be lower than the preferential rate, experts warned.

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