Smooth year: real inflation will coincide with targets by the end of 2025
The inflation rate in Russia has decreased significantly, but there are a number of contributing factors that can change the trajectory of its change. Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development once again revised its own forecast for the current year — 6.8% instead of 7.6%, previously planned. At the same time, the target for 2026 remained unchanged at 4%. Whether the government and the Central Bank will really be able to reduce inflation to the forecasted values, what contributes to this and what hinders it, and whether it is now possible to judge the inflation rate for 2026, read the Izvestia article
Real plans
Inflation at the level of 6-7% at the end of 2025 is the official forecast, which almost coincides in the documents of the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Economic Development. Many economists agree with such calculations.
According to the results of the nine months, analysts recognize the success of the Bank of Russia in curbing inflation. In autumn, the effects of the regulator's tight monetary policy were clearly evident, says Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the VMT Consult analytical agency.
— According to our estimates, the current level in September is 4-6%, which, against the background of high spring values of 10% and above, gives an inflation rate close to the target in annual terms, that is, 6-7%. Lending slowed down significantly compared to last year due to the virtually prohibitive rates, which means that the amount of money in circulation fell (the population preferred to save rather than spend), consumer demand cooled, as a result of which prices for goods and services began to rise more slowly, the expert explains.
In addition, as the interlocutor of Izvestia points out, due to reaching the limit for employers who actively raised salaries in 2023-2024, wage growth is slowing down, and therefore real incomes of Russians," she explains.
Meanwhile, according to Kosareva, the final result will be at the upper limit of the forecast — 7-7.2%.
"Already in the fall and early winter, the effect of the VAT increase will begin to affect, which businesses will begin to prepare for in advance by increasing the price tag on their product," she added.
Grigory Zhirnov, an employee of the Laboratory of Macrostructural Modeling at the HSE Faculty of Economics, agrees with her in her forecasts.
— Note that this is not the target level of the Central Bank, but a forecast, and this should be treated exactly as a forecast. That is, the forecast may change with the new introductory ones. The main question now is when and to what extent the expected increase in VAT and reduction in tax rates will begin to be transferred to prices. It is likely that we will see this effect in November and December," the expert says.
Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets at the Presidential Academy, considers the forecast of 7% by the end of 2025 to be the most realistic.
— In the absence of unforeseen circumstances, the figures are quite realistic. The risks are an outstripping increase in fuel prices, a potential noticeable weakening of the ruble by the end of the year, as well as a slowdown in inflation under the influence of a loosening of monetary policy, the expert warned.
Izvestia asked the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy to comment on the reality of the 6-7% inflation forecast. But at the time of publication of the article, no responses had been received.
The target is unlikely
Yulia Makarenko, Deputy Director of the Banking Development Institute, took the opposite side in the assessment. In her opinion, the year will end with an indicator of 9.5–10%. The financier explains his estimates by powerful pro-inflationary factors that operate in parallel with the efforts of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia.
— Firstly, inflationary expectations, the strength of which should not be underestimated. Now the indicator has dropped to 12.6%, according to the Bank of Russia, and it is still higher than, for example, in 2019," she recalls.
Secondly, the expert concludes, the increase in prices for all goods and services is largely caused by an increase in housing and communal services tariffs (by 11.9% on average in the Russian Federation in 2025) and the cost of auto fuel, which is hindered by the embargo on gasoline exports. Thirdly, Russian production of civilian products is not keeping pace with the growing demand. Yes, import substitution is showing an enviable pace, but demand is still far from being fully met. The dynamics are held back primarily by high loan rates. There is an obvious bias towards the production of products for the military-industrial complex.
— Fourthly, the emerging policy of controlled weakening of the ruble in order to compensate for part of the lost income is fraught with rising prices for imported goods and domestic goods with foreign components and consumables, coupled with complicated logistics chains. The pension was indexed twice in 2025, and in the spring the conditions for the family mortgage were revised, which included secondary housing for some cities. Additional financial burden relief for large families with mortgages, etc. is being discussed," Yulia Makarenko lists.
She also points to a softening of the monetary exchange rate, which is fraught with a transition from a saving model of consumer behavior to a spending one, and this is evident with the revival of lending last summer. The demand that has been accumulating for almost a year is being released.
According to ACRA calculations, under moderately conservative assumptions about the external environment and the ruble exchange rate, inflation may decrease to 6.3% by the end of 2025 (December compared to December last year), which corresponds to an annual average of 8.9%.
Forecast for 2026
The experts surveyed differed in their estimates of the inflation rate for the next 2026.
In 2026, the authorities will be able to reduce the inflation rate to a comfortable 4% for the economy. But only if new shocks caused by domestic or, more likely, global factors can be avoided," Ekaterina Kosareva summarizes.
And according to Grigory Zhirnov, by December 2026, inflation will be 5-6%. He called the likely weakening of the exchange rate, an increase in VAT and an increase in inflationary expectations from these two factors the main pro-inflationary factors.
At the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, we are likely to see an additional increase in prices of about one percent due to an increase in the VAT rate, says Dmitry Kulikov, senior director of the ACRA Group of sovereign and regional ratings.
"However," he says, "this effect on inflation will be quite short—term. With this in mind, we expect inflation to reach about 5% by the end of 2026.
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