The elections in the Czech Republic lead to the power of the eurosceptics. Analysis
Parliamentary elections will be held in the Czech Republic next weekend. The most likely result will be the rise to power of Eurosceptics led by former Prime Minister Andrei Babish. He advocates reducing defense spending and refusing military aid to Ukraine. What else should we expect from the elections is in the Izvestia article.
What preceded the election
• Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic will be held in two days, on October 3 and 4. Based on their results, 200 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be identified and a new government will be formed. Elections are held in 14 multi-member districts based on party lists. To obtain mandates, parties need to gain at least 5% of the vote, two—party coalitions — at least 8%, three-party and more - at least 11%. For the first time in history, citizens of the Czech Republic living outside its borders will be able to vote by mail.
• In the last elections held in 2021, the center-right coalition "Together" (SPOLU), consisting of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), the Christian Democratic Union — Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09 (its name stands for "Tradition, Responsibility, Prosperity") won by the number of votes."). This result was unexpected, since according to all opinion polls, the right-wing populist ANO ("Action of Dissatisfied Citizens") led by Andrei Babish, who has served as prime minister since 2017, should have taken the first place.
• At the same time, due to the peculiarities of the Czech electoral system, ANO won the leadership in the number of seats in parliament — it got 72 mandates, while SPOLU had one less. Babis failed to find coalition partners to form a majority, while the liberal alliance of the Czech Pirate Party and Starost and Independents joined SPOLU. In total, they won 108 seats in parliament, although four pirate MPs soon left the coalition.
Which parties are fighting for power
• The main favorite of the elections is the ANO party. Its leader, Andrei Babis, has a reputation as the "Czech Donald Trump" — he is also a dollar billionaire, began his career in politics under the slogan of overthrowing the old elites, managed to stay in power and lose it, and now he can return to the prime minister's chair. During the election campaign, Babis even survived an "assassination attempt" — an elderly man hit him on the head with a crutch at a rally, so the politician had to go to the hospital for a day. Babish is an opponent of increasing military spending and arms supplies to Ukraine, and advocates a compromise on military operations in the country and a settlement of relations with Russia. At the same time, when he was prime minister, Prague pursued a no less harsh policy towards Moscow than it does now.
• The ruling SPOLU coalition has noticeably lost its position over the past four years. Although she is second in opinion polls, she is behind the ANO by about 10 percentage points, and the difference in mandates between them may reach 30. SPOLU, led by current Prime Minister Petro Fiala, is in favor of continuing to support Ukraine and increasing military spending in accordance with commitments made under NATO.
• The third place is claimed by an unofficial coalition assembled by the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party with three more like-minded people. Her ideology is based on an anti-migrant and anti-green policy. Tokyo-born SPD leader Tomio Okamura advocates holding referendums on Czech withdrawal from NATO and the European Union, and also supports the ANO in relation to the Ukrainian crisis.
• The liberal Czech Pirate Party and the Elders and Independents are participating separately in these elections, as they do not want to be associated with SPOLU. Both associations are close in spirit — they advocate the introduction of the euro instead of the Czech crown, European integration and further support for Ukraine in the conflict with Russia. However, individually, they are inferior in opinion polls to their principled opponents from the SPD.
• The far-left coalition "Enough is Enough!", which unites communists and Social Democrats, may have a certain impact on the current elections. They advocate withdrawal from NATO and the European Union, but on many issues they oppose the right of the ANO and SPD. Although the left does not enjoy widespread support, they are able to pick up a few seats that the right and liberals may lack.
What are the results to expect
• Currently, the ANO is so far ahead of the SPOLU coalition that the victory of Babis' party is practically beyond doubt. However, she cannot form a government on her own yet. The election results largely determine which of them it will be most beneficial for her to form a coalition with. Although the ANO tends towards right-wing parties, the possibility of its unification with the Communists and Social Democrats is not excluded. Babis and leftist politicians are unanimous on the most divisive issue for the Czech Republic — the attitude towards the conflict in Ukraine.
The centrists, led by Fiala, have almost no chance of retaining power. Although SPOLU allows for the return of a broad coalition along with the pirates and the "elders," polls do not give them all more than 40% of the election results. They refuse to cooperate on principle with any other parties that have a chance of entering parliament.
• At the same time, they still have one trump card up their sleeve — President Peter Pavel. Although he does not have the same power as the prime minister, he is still the one who nominates the winner of the parliamentary elections for this post and has a certain influence on how negotiations on the formation of a government will develop. Pavel made it clear that he did not want Babish to return and wanted to check his business connections for a conflict of interest. However, if the ANO wins convincingly, the president will not be able to resist the election results for long. In this case, Pavel warned that the last line he would not allow Babis to cross was holding referendums on leaving NATO and the European Union.
• If the elections go as promised by opinion polls, and Babis reaches an agreement with the extreme right, it will be a significant blow to the European Union. The Czech Republic will become the third eurosceptic country, along with Hungary and Slovakia, that refuses to strictly follow the course of Brussels and unconditionally join its initiatives. First of all, the new government will insist on a revision of the sanctions policy towards Russia, as the rejection of energy resources caused by it led the Czech Republic to economic problems and rising electricity prices. In company with its neighbors from Hungary and Slovakia, the Czech Republic will find it easier to resist the restrictions of the European Union, which the country's population does not want to put up with.
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