The economist did not support the EBRD's forecast of Russia's GDP growth
The decline in Russian GDP growth to 1.3%, projected by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, is explained by several factors. First of all, such expectations are related to the fact that the ongoing sanctions pressure restricts access to financing and new technologies. This opinion was expressed by Valeria Ivanova, Associate Professor of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance at the State University of Management, in a conversation with Izvestia.
"The second aspect concerns structural imbalances in the economy, including dependence on commodity exports, which make it vulnerable to fluctuations in world prices. Global organizations also record a weakening of consumer activity and export revenues of Russia, which reduces the pace of economic growth," the expert adds.
Ivanov emphasizes that such underestimations of the growth of the Russian economy are not uncommon in modern international practice. However, historically, the actual figures often exceed the expectations of foreign institutions.
"In particular, in Russia, according to the results of the first half of 2025, Rosstat recorded GDP growth at the level of 1.7-2%, which already exceeds the EBRD forecasts," the Izvestia interlocutor recalls.
She believes that the underestimated forecasts are largely due to the foreign policy environment, sanctions pressure and global economic challenges, to which international organizations react with excessive caution. However, according to her, the Russian economy demonstrates the ability to adapt and use internal growth reserves.
Read more about the situation with the growth of the Russian economy in the Izvestia article:
"European-style pessimism: why the EBRD lowered its forecast for Russia's GDP growth"
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