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- Trump on the locomotive: The United States is rushing into the struggle for Central Asia
Trump on the locomotive: The United States is rushing into the struggle for Central Asia
The largest countries of Central Asia almost simultaneously concluded record-breaking agreements with the United States. Kazakhstan has agreed to purchase freight locomotives for $4 billion, Uzbekistan has committed to purchase aircraft for $8 billion. Experts confirm that Washington is seeking to increase its influence in the region. Izvestia investigated the situation.
Contracts of the Century
President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev paid a working visit to the United States at the end of September. During the trip, he spoke at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, and also met with many American officials and businessmen. The main result was the conclusion of a contract for the purchase of American freight locomotives for a total of $4 billion.
US President Donald Trump did not hide his delight on his social network, calling the incident the largest railway equipment purchase in history. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Latnick noted that as a result, cooperation between the two countries will reach a new level. The press service of the Kazakh leader stressed that the locomotives will be produced at the Wabtec Kazakhstan plant, which has been operating in Astana since 2009.
Tokayev also held talks with representatives of major American corporations. At the meeting with Chevron's management, the expansion of production at the Tengiz and Karachaganak oil and gas fields was discussed. We talked with the chairman of the Board of Directors of PepsiCo about the construction of a snack factory in the Almaty region. The creation of a regional satellite communications hub and investments of $200 million were discussed with the vice president of Amazon.
President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev also attended a session of the UN General Assembly and met with representatives of the American business establishment. In his case, the main episode was the contract for the purchase of 22 new Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft. The deal is estimated at $8 billion, with deliveries expected to begin in 2031.
Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner
At an expanded meeting with business representatives, Uzbekistan concluded agreements with a number of large foreign companies. At the event, Mirziyoyev said that he personally guarantees Americans the success of their work in the republic, and also announced the creation of the post of Deputy Minister for work with the United States in the Ministry of Investments of Uzbekistan.
At the end of the visit, Mirziyoyev personally met with Donald Trump. He called his colleague a man of his word, and the deal with Boeing was great. The Uzbek leader responded by saying that following his meetings in New York, a portfolio of contracts and promising projects worth over $100 billion had been formed, and his interlocutor was supposedly worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize and should definitely come to Samarkand.
Out of focus
Relations between the United States and Central Asian countries have gone through several stages. In the 1990s, Washington was one of the first to recognize the independence of the five republics, but no well-thought-out geopolitical strategy emerged later. This was largely due to the remoteness of the region, the lack of access to the World Ocean, and the fact that the territory was considered a zone of exclusive Russian influence.
At the same time, economic cooperation was developing quite actively. In the early 1990s, the government of Kazakhstan and the American oil and gas giant Chevron signed an agreement to establish a joint venture, Tengizchevroil. The company started developing the Tengiz field and became the largest oil producing structure in Central Asia.
In 2001, there was the first serious surge of U.S. interest in the region. After the September 11 attacks, the Americans launched a military operation in Afghanistan. They needed a reliable rear to conduct combat operations. As a result, American military bases appeared in Manas, Kyrgyzstan, and Khanabad, Uzbekistan. At that time, it might have seemed that military-technical cooperation would be close and long-term, but gradually both locations were curtailed.
Then there was a lull again, although important initiatives periodically appeared. So, in 2015, the C5+1 diplomatic platform was born for meetings of American representatives with the leaders of Central Asian states. In 2020, the State Department for the first time published a policy document on the US strategy in the region for the period up to 2025. Among the priorities were the joint fight against terrorism and the development of ties between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan.
In 2022, there was a new surge in Washington's interest in the region. After the start of the conflict, Western countries imposed harsh sanctions against Moscow, and against this background, the trade turnover of the Russian Federation with the countries of Central Asia increased sharply. Washington suspected that Russia's neighbors were helping it circumvent numerous restrictions, and began putting pressure on the countries of the region in all possible ways.
State Department officials then frequented the Central Asian capitals, did not hesitate to threaten and persuade, and explicitly admitted that they intended to "undock" the region from Moscow. Washington also imposed targeted sanctions against companies that were suspected of violating sanctions. The culmination was Joe Biden's personal meeting with the five leaders of the countries in September 2023.
The United States eventually achieved some success. For example, Central Asia has stopped accepting cards from the Russian Mir payment system. Overall, however, the effect of these efforts has been limited. The fact is that the overseas guests uttered a lot of big words, but did not offer any substitute for trade with Russia and did not talk about compensation.
It may seem that the situation has changed now. Indeed, landmark deals were on the agenda, which, if implemented in certain areas, will link the Central Asian countries quite closely with the United States. So far, however, observers and experts are skeptical. Firstly, the details of the transactions remain unknown. It is even difficult to say whether we are talking about agreed contracts or whether these are only memoranda of intent so far.
In addition, there are doubts about the effectiveness and transparency of the agreements reached. For example, Uzbek aviation experts say that the contract for the purchase of aircraft looks unrealistic. According to one publication, one Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner costs up to $300 million, meaning the maximum cost of 22 aircraft should not exceed $6.6 billion, which is clearly less than the designated $8 billion.
Under the SCO number
Sergei Chizhov, a State Duma deputy and member of the budget Committee, believes that these are high-profile but nevertheless targeted initiatives.
— It is important to note that the locomotives for Kazakhstan will be assembled at the American plant located in Astana. Thus, the republic invests not only in the American economy, but also in its own economy, creating jobs at home. As for the long—haul Boeing, it is a high-tech product, which has no analogue in Russia and China yet," he emphasizes.
Chizhov adds that in such circumstances, it is hardly worth concluding that the balance of power in Central Asia has changed.
— The influence of Russia and China is still strong in the region. Both countries are indispensable for the economies of all five countries as a whole, and for individual industries. In addition, Astana and Tashkent are members of the SCO, and Kazakhstan also participates in the Russian initiatives of the EAEU and the CSTO. Washington currently cannot offer such a level of cooperation," notes Sergey Chizhov.
Andrey Grozin, head of the Central Asia Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, says that the current American administration is focused on striking gestures and high-profile deals, but there are difficulties with a long-term strategy.
— It is important for Trump to constantly demonstrate the success of his foreign policy course. The current deals solve this problem: they show American voters that the president has "bent" the next foreign leaders, squeezed money out of them, and created jobs. At the same time, Washington does not have any stable strategy for Central Asia. The United States, of course, wants to oust Russia and China, they have never given up on this task, but with specific goals and tools of the problem, says Andrei Grozin.
Alexander Vorobyov, head of the Center for Public Diplomacy and World Policy Analysis, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, says that the Americans are strengthening their positions in the region, taking control of the share of the high-tech market.
— I don't think these deals will fundamentally change anything, but there will be a certain increase in US influence. I would especially pay attention to Uzbekistan, which is developing quite steadily. It is likely that the Americans and Europeans will continue to strengthen their positions here. This is not a good thing for Russia, because along with the growth of economic cooperation, political contacts are increasing, as well as the influence of non—profit organizations is growing," explains Alexander Vorobyov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
