The expert spoke about the impact of the growth of recycling on car loans

The increase in the recycling fee in Russia, which is planned from November 1, may be sensitive not only for the car market as a whole, but also for the car loan sector. The new system, which takes into account not only the age and volume of the engine, but also the power of the car, can dramatically increase the cost of a number of popular car models. On September 30, the executive director of the financial marketplace "Choose.<url>" Yaroslav Badzhurak.

"Now a car loan is the only way for many to purchase a new car. But when the cost of cars increases by hundreds of thousands or millions of rubles, the monthly burden on the borrower becomes unbearable. As a result, some customers will either abandon the purchase altogether, or shift to a more affordable segment where recycling rates remain moderate," the expert said.

According to forecasts, car loan rates may rise by 2-5 percentage points for cars with moderate power and by 5-8 percentage points or more for more powerful cars.

In addition, Bajurak added, higher prices for new cars will have an indirect impact on the used car market. Those who planned to purchase transport with a loan will be forced to reconsider their plans, possibly choosing less comfortable conditions, such as a longer repayment period or a lower initial payment. All this negatively affects the purchasing power and slows down the development of the segment.

Not everyone will survive: every tenth car dealer may leave the market by the end of the year.

Low sales and internal competition reduce profitability

For the budget and manufacturers, an increase in recycling may seem justified, as this will provide additional revenue and stimulate demand for more affordable models. However, for consumers, this means an increase in the cost of car loans and a lengthening of the distance between the buyer and the desired car. The expert noted that if the government does not want to face a sharp decline in demand and an increase in social tension, it is necessary either to soften the parameters of the reform, or to propose compensatory measures such as subsidies or preferential programs in the field of lending.

"Today, car loans are a key tool for updating the country's fleet. According to our research, 27% of Russians surveyed planned to apply for a car loan in the coming year. At the same time, 78% of them reported that if the increase in recycling takes effect on November 1, it will change their plans: two thirds plan to abandon the purchase in principle, and only a third will consider other car models," the expert said.

According to him, it depends on how well the new recycling calculation system is introduced, whether car loans will remain affordable for millions of Russians.

On August 1, eCredit experts (part of Auto.<url>") told Izvestia that Russians have become more likely to make a large down payment when buying a car on credit: in the first half of 2025, the share of car loans with a contribution of more than 50% increased from 27% to 37%. The share of borrowers with a down payment of 20-30% of the cost of the car decreased from 31% to 22%. And the share of those who take out a loan with a minimum contribution (0-10%) has decreased from 10% to 8%.

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