Turning point: The United States has escalated its relations with Russia

Donald Trump said that with the support of the EU, Ukraine can return its former borders. The American president also allowed NATO countries to shoot down Russian aircraft in case they violate the alliance's airspace. At the same time, Trump leaves the opportunity for dialogue, hoping to achieve a result in a month. The harsh statements of the US president may be related to the difficult domestic political situation for him, analysts say. Russia is interested in the mediation efforts of the United States, but is ready for any scenario. The UNGA High-level Week has become a platform for other high-profile statements. For example, the Turkish president accused Israel of the premeditated murder of 250 journalists, and the Brazilian leader called the destruction of U.S. boats off the coast of Venezuela a "summary execution."

The results of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky

At the launch of the high-level week of the UN General Assembly, attention is traditionally focused on the speeches of the leaders of the largest countries. This time, US President Donald Trump's speech caused a lot of excitement. In it, he spoke about his achievements in conflict resolution and criticized Europe's migration policy.

Trump reiterated that he is working to resolve the Ukrainian conflict and noted good relations with the Russian president. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio directly advised Ukraine to agree to an agreement on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. At the same time, he did not specify what specific agreements he was talking about.

However, after the meeting with Vladimir Zelensky, Donald Trump's rhetoric changed dramatically. According to him, Ukraine, with the support of the EU, is able to return its original borders. He also called Russia a "paper tiger" and confirmed the continued supply of weapons to NATO.

"I think that Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is able to fight and reconquer all of Ukraine, returning it to its original state," the US president wrote on social media.

It is important to understand that Trump, under the influence of the last interlocutor, can adjust his position in terms of more or less support. This time, Zelensky was the last or one of the last interlocutors, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, noted in an interview with Izvestia. The expert also stressed that this is rather a momentary transformation of the position.

However, Trump has not closed the negotiation window: now he expects to make progress in negotiations on Ukraine within a month. The Republican stated this at a meeting with Zelensky. At the same time, Trump refused to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, which Kiev insists on. The United States did not join the UN in the statement of Ukraine and the European Union condemning Russia's actions.

"I'll let you know in about a month," the American leader replied to a journalist's question about how negotiations with the Russian president were progressing.

Other escalatory statements were made at the meeting between Trump and Zelensky. The US president said that NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes if they violate the alliance's airspace. Earlier, Estonia accused the Russian Federation of the fact that three MiG-31 interceptors crossed the Estonian border.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the route passed over the neutral waters of the Baltic Sea. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, after consultations with members of the alliance, said that "the planes did not pose an immediate danger."

Donald Trump's speech at the UN General Assembly from the very first minutes demonstrated the fundamental immutability of the negotiation tactics and at the same time the strategy of the American leader: alternating escalation and warming of rhetoric directed at the warring parties, in a staggered manner, without subsequent practical implementations, American scientist, Candidate of Political Sciences, HSE analyst Egor Toropov told Izvestia.

"Russia and Ukraine, in the context of US political pressure to intensify dialogue processes, are in a precision monthly pendulum of aggravation and warming of US rhetorical efforts: from the July escalation towards Russia to warming in August, and now, again, to tightening," the expert noted.

Toropov stressed that Donald Trump's speech was being delivered at an unfavorable moment in his domestic political life. If the Senate was on vacation in August and could not adopt new sanctions and tariffs against Russia and its trading partners, now, having returned from vacation, senators, if desired, are guaranteed to overcome Trump's potential veto by a bipartisan super majority. The factor of such an opportunity for American lawmakers plays a crucial role in exacerbating Trump's rhetoric towards Russia.

Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia that the intensification of negative rhetoric could be aimed at putting pressure on Moscow. The second reason for such a statement may be that Trump does not see the immediate results of his mediation activities.

Against this background, Kiev is trying with all its might to hold on to the coalition of its allies. After the reduction of military aid from the United States, Zelensky may lose the support of a number of European countries, the Reuters news agency reported, citing a source. Moreover, Ukraine may not have enough money for the army this year, Roksolana Pidlas, head of the Budget Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, admitted.

Oleg Karpovich, vice-rector of the Diplomatic Academy, said in an interview with Izvestia that Vladimir Zelensky, of course, asked the United States to increase arms supplies. But the US president cannot fail to understand that further drawing Washington into the conflict is counterproductive and contrary to national interests. Because in this situation, the United States will finally lose the opportunity to play the role of mediator.

— Let's hope that the American leader has caught the signals coming from Moscow, including on issues of strategic stability, and will not complicate the negotiation process with senseless steps in the spirit of the Biden administration. But we are ready for any scenario," the expert noted.

Earlier, Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to adhere to the basic parameters of START III for another year after its expiration on February 5, 2026, with a similar decision by the United States. Washington said it had taken note of these statements and promised to respond.

By the way, Marco Rubio also hinted at the possibility of ending the mediation efforts of the United States. He did not name the detailed conditions, but did not rule out that such an option is possible. Other countries, such as China and Brazil, are also trying to help the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine by creating formats such as the Friends of Peace Group. However, it is the United States that has made the most progress in mediation efforts so far. Both the Kremlin and the White House emphasize that they value the constructive relations they are building. However, it is obvious that possible drastic steps by the American administration risk disrupting the fragile trend.

How is the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine progressing

Against this background, the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine has stalled: the last round of negotiations was held on July 23 in Istanbul. Kiev has not responded to a number of Russian initiatives, instead demanding a meeting with the Russian president. Over the past few weeks, Ukraine's strategy has been to delay negotiations with the Russian Federation.

— Withdrawing from the negotiation process weakens the party that will do it. Instead of disrupting the negotiation process, we are talking about delaying it: The Ukrainian side is delaying responses to requests from Russia, putting forward counter—proposals," the expert stressed.

Ukraine's confidence may be caused by the approval of this position by the "coalition of the willing" led by France and Britain. At the last meeting of the association in Paris on September 4, 26 countries confirmed their readiness to participate in sending a military contingent to Ukraine after the establishment of a truce or peace in that country, French President Emmanuel Macron said.

— 35 countries participated in the meeting of the coalition of volunteers, which took place in Paris on September 4, and are ready to contribute to the guarantees of Ukraine's security. The goal is to collect contributions from all those who wish to participate, so that on the day when a truce is reached in Ukraine, peace can be guaranteed in the long term and European security can be ensured, the French Embassy in Moscow confirmed to Izvestia.

At the same time, the EU expects to involve the United States in a new sanctions package against Russia. Recall that since Donald Trump came to power, Washington has not imposed new restrictions against Russia. During this time, Brussels has already approved three packages of sanctions (16, 17 and 18), and the 19th is under consideration.

The American president has repeatedly said that he is ready to impose anti-Russian restrictions if the EU stops purchases of Russian energy resources and imposes duties against India and China. At a meeting with Zelensky, Donald Trump said that Hungary, one of the buyers of Russian oil in the EU, would refuse to purchase if the American leader asked him.

"From Trump's point of view, the European Union should not 'sit back,' and if the EU demands sanctions so harshly, then let it participate in them and also bear the risks of retaliatory sanctions," German political analyst Alexander Rahr told Izvestia.

The expert stressed that for Europeans there is only one cherished priority in politics: supporting Ukraine and weakening Russia. They are ready to sacrifice all their wealth in order to inflict a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation.

Important statements during the UN General Assembly

The UNGA agenda includes not only Ukraine, but also the conflict in the Middle East. After the latest escalation of the situation in the Gaza Strip, the split over the recognition of Palestine has intensified among Western countries. Canada and the United Kingdom announced recognition of the Palestinian State the day before, followed by Andorra, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, San Marino and France. The Israeli Foreign Ministry criticized the decision and called it a "reward" for Hamas.

However, more than 150 States have already recognized the status of Palestine. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during his speech to the UN General Assembly, called on Israel to immediately establish a truce in the Gaza Strip, stop attacks and ensure unhindered access for humanitarian aid.

— Israel deliberately killed 250 journalists working for national and international media in Gaza. He banned entry to Gaza, but he still couldn't hide the fact of the genocide," Erdogan said.

The president of the country with the largest Muslim population, Indonesia, also spoke about recognizing Palestine. At the same time, Prabowo Subianto called for "recognizing and respecting Israel, guaranteeing its security" for the sake of establishing peace between Israel and Palestine.

Brazilian President Lula da Silva has raised the issue of tensions in Latin America. Recall that the United States pulled a group of warships into the Caribbean Sea and repeatedly used it to destroy boats off the coast of Venezuela, which allegedly transported drugs. The Caracas authorities responded by mobilizing, fearing an invasion. To end the tension, Lula da Silva called on the countries to cooperate in order to curb money laundering and limit the arms trade.

"The use of lethal force in situations other than an armed conflict is tantamount to executing people without trial," the Brazilian leader stressed.

The Brazilian president noted that the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska gives hope for a negotiated solution to the Ukrainian crisis. But for this, it is necessary to take into account the legitimate security concerns of all parties. This is exactly the position that Russia defends.