Provide a database: The United States wanted to regain control of Bagram in Afghanistan

Donald Trump demanded that Afghanistan transfer Bagram airbase, which American troops left during the withdrawal of troops from the country in 2021, to the control of the United States. Otherwise, "bad things" could happen, he threatened. The head of state explained the plans for the return of the base by the strategic location of the facility. In response, Kabul refused to return the Bags, recommending that Washington adopt a "policy of realism and rationality." Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Bad consequences

"If Afghanistan does not return Bagram Air Base to those who built it — the United States of America — then bad things will happen," US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social.

After that, in a conversation with reporters, the head of the American state said: "If they don't do this, you will find out what I will do."

Trump said on September 19, during a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, that Washington was trying to retake the base and was negotiating with Kabul. As explained by The Wall Street Journal, we are talking about the restoration of a small American military contingent at the airbase "as a springboard for counter-terrorism operations."

According to the American leader, this base is "one of the most powerful in the world in terms of strength and runway length," and it is also located "an hour's drive from the place where China manufactures its nuclear weapons."

Bagram Airbase is located 60 km from the capital of Afghanistan, Kabul. The airfield was built in the 1950s, but at the height of the Soviet campaign of 1979-1989, it became one of the key points of deployment of troops. After the introduction of the American contingent in Afghanistan in 2001, Bagram came under the control of the United States.

Since 2021, Afghanistan has been under the control of the Taliban. Joe Biden, then President of the United States, withdrew troops from the country. Trump has repeatedly criticized this decision of his predecessor. This time, he described it as a "complete disaster."

Kabul urged not to repeat past mistakes

In Afghanistan, the call of the American leader was rejected. "Throughout history, the Afghans have never agreed with a military presence, and this possibility was completely excluded during the negotiations and the conclusion of the Doha agreement," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakir Jalali. At the same time, he stressed Kabul's readiness to cooperate with the United States on economic and political issues.

And Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid called Trump's desire to return control of the base to the United States "emotional," saying the Taliban would never do that. "We have driven the Americans out of the Islamic emirate and will not accept their presence in our country. They have been attacking us for decades, fighting with us, and we will not tolerate the presence of any Americans here," he said. Mujahid also added that the airbase is under the control of Afghanistan, not China.

The agreement mentioned by Jalali was concluded in February 2020 during negotiations in the capital of Qatar. It included Washington's commitment not to interfere in Afghanistan's internal politics and not to use military force against the country's territorial integrity.

In this regard, the Afghan authorities called on the United States not to repeat the "unsuccessful experience of the past", but to "make a decision based on realism and rationality" regarding the Bagram airbase.

According to Reuters, citing some former and current American officials, President Trump's plans "may end up looking like a second invasion of American troops." In addition, agency sources stated the existing risks: maintaining the base will require significant financial costs, as well as a large military contingent.

In addition, the return of the US military to Bagram airbase will cause a sharp reaction from Beijing, as China will regard these steps as an attempt to undermine its influence in the region, The South China Morning Post writes. In addition, such decisions will provoke an appropriate response from Russia and Iran.

China does not officially recognize the Taliban government, but maintains contacts with the Afghan authorities, including regarding mining projects.

What do the experts think

Omar Nessar, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia that if the words of the American president are taken seriously and it comes to practical steps, then the actions of the United States can create a rather tense situation in the region.

"Trump's demands in this form are completely unacceptable to the current Afghan authorities, because if they make concessions on this issue, they will lose the fragile internal legitimacy they currently have," the political scientist believes.

According to the expert, in turn, the United States is unlikely to undertake large-scale military operations, much less deploy troops.

— At the same time, however, they can significantly complicate the situation of the Taliban with certain small-scale actions. For example, the Americans can launch several drone strikes on a number of sensitive points for the current Afghan authorities in Kandahar and Kabul, about which they clearly have information, and thereby complicate the situation, provoke a number of very complex processes, the expert is sure.

The analyst added that such actions could lead to a rapprochement between the Taliban and non-Afghan groups.

"And this, in turn, can lead to a destabilization of the situation in the entire Central Asian region," Nessar concluded.

Andrei Kortunov, the scientific director of the Russian International Affairs Council, stressed in a conversation with Izvestia that Trump's initiative has geopolitical and psychological components.

— Geopolitically, this is a very advantageous point that allows us to strengthen the position of the United States in the region as a whole. Afghanistan borders Iran, which means that, if necessary, it is possible to make some kind of flights from there to the territory of Iran. In a sense, this is also close to Pakistan, and US relations with Pakistan are now quite complicated. So this base is a position that I would like to take," the American explained.

In addition, Trump's desire to show that Biden has left Afghanistan is obvious, and the current leader can return to a place where American positions can be protected.

Alexander Ermakov, a junior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that it is quite difficult to say how serious Donald Trump is in his intentions and how long his attention will be focused on this topic.

— A large-scale deployment in Bagram is unlikely to be of interest to the US military, but as a logistical base, or for example, a center for basing reconnaissance aircraft operating in a difficult region, it can be useful. By consequences, it is unlikely that Trump meant serious military operations, after all, from the point of view of image, the war in Afghanistan is completely unpopular in the United States," the expert emphasized.

He added that the American leader can always apply an economic carrot and stick to the current authorities in Kabul.

"For example, the issue of unfreezing Afghan assets that remained under Washington's control after the previous regime, hindering or encouraging humanitarian operations and, strange as it may sound, economic cooperation," the expert concluded.