The economist stated the risks of the cascading principle of family mortgage rates

Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at fam Properties, pointed out the controversial cascade betting principle in an interview with Izvestia on September 19. He noted that a significant difference in interest rates between mortgages for families with one and two children (6% and 12%, respectively) can lead to undesirable consequences.

"In fact, conditions will improve for families with three children. For those with two children, the situation will not change. Only families with three or more children will benefit. In our opinion, the situation creates risks both for the construction market, which the government stimulates, for example, through preferential loans in small towns, the program has already entered into force, and for Russian families," the expert said.

He stressed that a mortgage at 6% can be a solution for families with one child, contributing to the emergence of a second one. However, at a rate of 12%, many parents will be forced to consider less spacious housing options or postpone expansion. Tumin added that this leads to discrimination against families.

"At the same time, the growth in demand for primary housing will be questionable — the benefits of a family mortgage will not outweigh the benefits of buying a secondary home at a higher interest rate, but at the same time not as expensive as a new building. It would be optimal to introduce less differentiated rates, such as 8%, 6% and 4%. Any level below 10% will help a family of any size," the economist said.

For large families, the new offer may be very attractive, as it will allow them to consider the possibility of buying multi-room housing. Tumin predicted that the share of purchases of such apartments will grow by 10-30%, depending on the region. He also noted that in the short term, we should expect an increase in the financial burden on the state due to subsidized rates.

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These are young families, and their loan amount is approximately 4.9 million rubles.

On the same day, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, said that parliamentarians were discussing the idea of reducing the family mortgage rate to 4% at the birth of a third child. He clarified that at the birth of the first there will be an increased rate, but below the market rate — 12% is proposed with the Ministry of Finance. At the birth of the second child — 6%.

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