The financier named three possible scenarios for the ruble exchange rate in October

In the absence of sharp fluctuations in the news background, the exchange rate may settle in the region of 92-102 rubles per US dollar. On September 19, Andrey Goloshchapov, CEO of EUS, spoke about three possible scenarios for the Russian currency in an interview with the Prime agency.

The first, optimistic option assumes that if the authorities take harsh economic measures, the exchange rate will be 85-95 rubles per dollar. The expert estimated the probability of this at 15%.

According to a more negative forecast, the chances of which Goloshchapov estimated at no more than 25%, the ruble would collapse to 105 units per dollar. This may happen, among other things, due to falling oil prices.

At the same time, the most realistic scenario assumes that the ruble will settle in the range of 92-102 rubles per dollar.

"Most likely, in October we should expect a slow movement of the ruble towards weakening in the range of 95-105 rubles per dollar and above. Further price peaks may occur under the influence of external market conditions, although the Bank of Russia will restrain the ruble's fall as much as possible," the financier noted.

Rate up: the dollar rose above 85 rubles for the first time since April

This is happening against the background of the risks of new anti-Russian sanctions and a possible reduction in the key interest rate.

Earlier, on September 16, Spartak Sobolev, head of Alfa-Forex's investment strategy research department, said that starting on September 15, quotes would move to forming a September corridor in the range of 80-86 rubles per dollar, 94-100,50 rubles per euro and 11.20–12.05 rubles per yuan.

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