The analyst predicted the situation on the housing market in the fall of 2025
In 2025, the surge in interest in real estate is due not only to the traditional seasonal factor, but also to a number of important changes in the economic situation, which is gradually stabilizing. Evgeny Belokurov, Commercial Director of Yandex Real Estate, told Izvestia on September 12 about why the housing market may become more active this fall.
The central bank has started lowering interest rates again. This is the main signal for the entire economy. Although loans are still expensive, this decision suggests that the situation is starting to change. Savvy buyers often view this time as a unique "window of opportunity." There is a chance to have time to buy a property before prices go up again, following a reduction in mortgage rates. Simply put, you can manage to make a deal at relatively low prices while everyone is just waiting for future growth.
"According to Dom Bank.Russian Federation", from April to June, the volume of applications for project financing increased by 41%. This suggests that developers are starting to return to projects that were previously postponed due to the high cost of the loan. At the same time, the offer itself is also being transformed: developers are actively working with the base and structure of the offer, launching promotions and special conditions for potential buyers," the expert said.
The structure of transactions, according to him, is changing. Previously, the share of mortgage loans was about 76%, but now it has decreased to 58%. At the same time, the popularity of installments increased to 13%, and the number of transactions for own funds increased.
Such dynamics can create pent-up demand: people who previously postponed a decision return to discussing deals. According to Yandex Real Estate, since June, when the key rate began to decrease, views of the cards of ads for the sale of ready-made apartments and views of sellers' phone numbers began to grow. In July, compared to May, sales contact views increased by 14.3% across the country, and demand in the new building segment almost doubled — by 91.7%.
In the second quarter, the number of transactions in the segment of new buildings increased in 11 of the 16 largest cities in the country. The largest increases were shown by Krasnoyarsk (+39%), Omsk (+33%), Samara (+29%), Novosibirsk (+19%) and St. Petersburg (+16%).
"It is during the autumn period that developers are most active and fight for each client. Many large companies offer exclusive conditions: discounts, installments, special programs with attractive mortgage rates or the opportunity to purchase a new apartment at the expense of the old one," explained Belokurov.
At the same time, buyers can reduce the cost during transactions. The price of real deals is on average 5% lower than in the ads. In some regions, this difference is much greater.
The dynamics of apartment prices largely depends on the segment. Thus, new comfort-class buildings in Russia have increased in price by an average of 10% over the past year (+21.9% of offers). Mortgages are the main driver in this segment. If the rate continues to decrease, demand will start to rise, which may affect the price dynamics. However, in the coming months, one should not expect sharp jumps, rather there will be a gradual rise in prices.
In business class, the dynamics of the square's cost growth is slightly higher. Over the year, meters in such new buildings have risen in price by 11% (+25.7% of offers). The price increase in the elite class was 1.9% (+28.1% of offers) for the year. The low price dynamics against the background of a growing number of lots indicates high competition between new projects. In these segments, prices can rise even at current rates — there are more buyers with their own funds, for whom the key factor is a limited number of high-quality offers.
Activity in the secondary market was quite low in the first half of 2025. Against the background of such demand, the supply structure changed slightly, and, according to the expert, there was a modest trend in average prices. This leads to the formation of a low base. Therefore, in autumn, against the background of a revival in demand, a significant increase in activity is possible, which is typical after prolonged stagnation.
In the first months of 2025, in the secondary housing market in large cities, the share of ads with declining prices averaged 48% for all millionaires. In the second quarter, the share of such lots has already reached 53%. And the share of ads where owners raise the price, on the contrary, began to decrease.: In the second quarter of 2025, it was 8.1%, while at the beginning of the year it was 9.2%.
"The most liquid assets in the residential real estate market are studios and studio apartments. These options are in demand among tenants, which makes them interesting for investors. Such apartments quickly become more expensive, and they can be resold profitably. It is also worth paying attention to ready-made comfort-class facilities, which are now often sold with favorable conditions from developers. The main advantage is the opportunity to rent an apartment in the near future and receive a stable income," the expert added.
The secondary market remains an equally important segment, especially in areas where social and transport infrastructure is well developed: convenient bus routes, railway stations nearby or access to major highways. It is important that there are shops, schools, parks and public transport stops nearby.: this affects the demand from tenants.
On September 6, VTB Chairman of the Management Board Andrey Kostin announced a downward trend in the key interest rate in Russia. He stressed that now the movement of this indicator will only occur downwards, however, he clarified that the final decision is still made by the Central Bank of Russia.
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