The expert estimated the probability of falling oil prices due to the surplus in the market

Analyst Dudchenko: OPEC+ may cut production at any time

Wed, 09/10/2025 - 03:50

Озвучить текст

Select important

Off

The increase in oil production by OPEC+ countries does not mean that there will be a surplus in the market and prices will fall in the foreseeable future. This was stated by Finam analyst Nikolai Dudchenko in an interview with Izvestia.

A little slower: OPEC+ reduced the pace of production increase

After production increased by 547,000 barrels in September, oil companies will increase it by only 137 thousand barrels in October.

According to him, the situation with growing stocks also looks uncritical.

"In addition, OPEC+ can always return to production cuts if necessary. The cartel has repeatedly emphasized this in its messages," the expert added.

On Sunday, OPEC+ countries, contrary to expectations, agreed to further increase oil production from October. Saudi Arabia, which has recently been trying to regain market share, could play a decisive role in the decision. Eight countries belonging to the group will increase production by 137 thousand barrels per day from October.

This decision was justified by the general good state of the global economy, which is ready to accept "extra" volumes of oil. Saudi Arabia and Russia will provide the largest increase in production (42 thousand barrels per day each). In addition, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Oman and Algeria will increase production. In total, from April to Sunday's agreements, OPEC+ increased production by 2.5 million barrels per day (approximately 2.4% of global demand).

However, if we look at the medium term, there is now a balancing act on the market — American shale oil, the cost of production of which is in the region of $ 50-60 per barrel.

"A sharp drop in prices may bring down production in America, which will lead to a stabilization of the situation. It can be stated that oil prices are already quite low for American companies. So, according to the latest report by Baker Hughes, the number of oil rigs in the United States today is about 415 units, having decreased from 480 units last year," stated Nikolai Dudchenko.

While production is growing as a result of increased productivity, however, in the event of a further drop in prices, it is likely that the situation may change, stated Dudchenko.