The expert assessed the risks to the stability of the Russian banking system

The quality of the loan portfolios of Russian banks is slightly deteriorating, but overdue debts are adequately covered by reserves. This was stated by Finam analyst Igor Dodonov in an interview with Izvestia. He added that he did not consider the risks to the stability of the Russian banking system to be high.

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"I believe that against the background of the weakening economic situation in the country, still high interest rates and the indebtedness of the population, this trend will continue in the second half of the year. At the same time, the Central Bank notes that the overdue debt is sufficiently covered by reserves, in addition, the capital reserve in the sector (up to standards) is about 7 trillion rubles. We believe that the risks to the stability of the banking system are not very high now," the expert said.

According to the analytical review of the Bank of Russia for the second quarter of 2025, the quality of unsecured consumer loans (NPS) deteriorated during this period. The volume of non-performing loans in the segment increased by 1.3 percentage points over the quarter and reached 12.1% as of July 1, 2025. The reason was the "maturation" of risky loans issued in 2023 and before the beginning of 2024. During the period of high demand, banks actively lent to new borrowers without a credit history and with a low debt burden, the risks of which were initially underestimated.

The report notes that new loan disbursements have now become of higher quality. The share of loans with a high debt burden (PD 80+) has fallen to about 10% compared to about 20% in 2023. This is due to the strict macroprudential policy of the Bank of Russia, which imposed restrictions on the issuance of the riskiest loans. However, the "old" portfolio continues to generate losses, overriding the positive effect of the new standards.

Among other key trends, it is worth noting the growth of mortgages, which is still provided almost exclusively by government programs, mainly Family mortgages. The mortgage market is stagnating due to high interest rates (18.7% in June). The share of problem loans increased slightly to 1.4%.

In general, according to the results of the second quarter, the net profit of the Russian banking sector amounted to 1 trillion rubles, which is 29% higher than the result of the previous quarter (0.7 trillion rubles). The annual return on equity (ROE) increased to 19.9%. This growth was achieved due to volatile revenues, namely the reduction of losses from currency revaluation by 218 billion rubles and the receipt of dividends from subsidiaries of financial companies.

Read more about the current state of the Russian banking system in the Izvestia article:

Banks are in the black: they earned a trillion despite the risks