Mass protests have broken out again in Turkey. What you need to know

Protests have broken out in Istanbul, which have already been dubbed the "pan riots." Opposition supporters gathered at the central office of the Republican People's Party (CHP), resulting in clashes between protesters and police. At the same time, ordinary citizens joined the protest activity: they, being at home, knocked on metal kitchen utensils, thus expressing dissatisfaction with what was happening. Izvestia investigated why Turkey was once again gripped by riots and what they could lead to.

Reasons for the rallies

• Back in March, the Turkish authorities arrested the former mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu (we wrote more about this here). He is described as one of the leading representatives of the CHP and a possible rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2028 presidential election. The politician has been charged with corruption and contacts with terrorist organizations. However, the party insists that this is not about real violations of the law, but about targeted pressure on the opposition.

• The decision of the 45th Civil Court of Istanbul has now become the impetus for mass rallies. On September 2, he invalidated the results of the 2023 NRP party congress and ousted the elected leadership headed by Ozgur Celik. Control of the party was temporarily transferred to the council under the leadership of one of the party members. The supporters of the CHP reacted with street marches with noisy banging on kitchen utensils, which soon escalated into clashes with the police.

• In response, the authorities have resorted to harsh tactics. Restrictions have been imposed in six central districts of Istanbul on holding any rallies, demonstrations and distributing campaign materials up to and including September 10. Additionally reinforced police squads blocked the approaches to the main office of the CHP. At the same time, the Turkish Interior Ministry stressed that the refusal to obey court decisions and the desire to bring citizens to the streets are regarded as disrespect for the law. At the same time, the police have already detained 14 administrators of Internet pages, who were accused of publishing "provocative" materials.

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Consequences of the rallies

• The likelihood that the protests could shake Erdogan's position remains extremely low. The Turkish political system is structured in such a way that the president and his entourage control key state institutions, including the judiciary and the security sector. Due to this, the government is able to restrain even large-scale actions, minimizing their impact on management processes. Similar scenarios have been observed before. So, in the spring, mass protests provoked public tension, but did not lead to serious political changes.

• The consequences of the current actions are still difficult to assess. Even if they do not result in a change of power, they increase public pressure and increase the degree of discontent in society. Against the background of street protests, internal conflicts in the ruling party are possible due to disagreement over methods of suppressing the opposition. In addition, the protests worsen the economic climate. Political instability reduces investor confidence and intensifies international criticism, which gradually weakens the government's position.

• In addition, the very regularity of the protests is becoming a signal of growing discontent among local residents and that a significant part of society no longer perceives the existing management model as having no alternative. For Erdogan, such statements mean the need to strengthen internal control measures. This is likely to result in tougher work by law enforcement agencies, an expansion of the powers of law enforcement agencies, as well as increased pressure on activists.

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• Such measures will allow the authorities to keep the situation under control. However, at the same time, the tightening of domestic policy may lead to the fact that European colleagues are likely to notice signs of Turkey moving away from democratic standards. It is difficult to say whether this will trigger consideration of economic sanctions against Ankara in Brussels. A tough fight against the opposition may affect the image of the state and its position in the international arena. For many countries, Turkey remains an important economic partner, which makes the reaction to internal protests more cautious. However, the situation itself will not go unnoticed and may become the subject of public international discussions.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

● Vladimir Shapovalov, a political scientist and Deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University;

● political scientist Konstantin Kalachev.