Murk of the samurai: Shigeru Ishiba's resignation will intensify the political crisis in Japan

Japan is once again plunging into a political crisis, with a new prime minister in the country for the fourth time in five years. Shigeru Ishiba announced his retirement just over six months after taking office. According to the official version, in order to prevent the split of the Liberal Democratic Party. The ruling LDP-led coalition has already lost its majority in both houses of parliament. A change of power is not uncommon for Japan, but it will be difficult to form an opposition coalition in this case, experts tell Izvestia. Who can lead the Japanese government and how this will affect relations between Moscow and Tokyo — in the Izvestia article.

Why did Shigeru Ishiba resign

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the head of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has decided to resign. He has already instructed the party's secretary general to organize the elections, but for now he will remain in office as prime minister. Parliamentarians from the party will vote for or against holding early presidential elections on September 8. If approved, they may be held on October 4. Next, the government headed by Isiba will officially resign, and a new head of the cabinet will be elected at a meeting of parliament.

According to official reports, Isiba decided to resign in order to prevent a split in the party and take responsibility for the crushing defeat in the last elections to the upper house. In October 2024, immediately after Ishiba's arrival, her Liberal Democratic Party and her coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the key lower house of Representatives in early elections for the first time since 2012. Ironically, Ishiba initiated them himself in order to secure a mandate from Japanese citizens after a series of scandals. As a result, during his short term of office, coalitions lost their majority in both chambers.

Among the prime minister's promises were the fight against inflation and the reform of the Liberal Democratic Party after scandals related to illegal fundraising for political purposes. The prime minister also advocated strengthening the army and strengthening ties with the United States. Moreover, he proposed creating an analogue of NATO in Asia to "protect against common threats." Ishiba even got the nickname "gunji otaku," which means he is overly passionate about military subjects. There have been no significant breakthroughs in any of the areas, and the LPD's rating has fallen to record lows since the party returned to power in 2012.

The prime minister's departure indicates that the Japanese Liberal Democrats have not managed to overcome the crisis of loss of trust in which they found themselves due to financial fraud, inability to fulfill election promises and protect the interests of ordinary citizens, Olga Dobrinskaya, senior researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia, tells Izvestia.

However, the frequent change of prime minister in Japan is not a rare situation, and in most cases the party managed to hold its position. Most likely, the LDP will remain in power anyway.

"There is currently no serious opposition force that could displace the LDP, and the political parties that exist disagree with each other more than with the LDP," Vladimir Nelidov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.

The LDP has been in power since its founding in 1955, except for periods in 1993-1994 and 2009-2012. In the first case, she was ousted by the opposition coalition, but it collapsed in just a year. In 2009, the then-large Democratic Party was able to oust the LDP from power, but it could not hold its position.

"Thus, the negative experience of the opposition's rule in Japan will contribute to the fact that, despite all the difficulties, the LDP will remain in the focus of Japanese politics,— Nelidov is sure.

Sanae Takaichi, the former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, who lost to Ishiba in the second round of the election campaign in the fall of 2024, is now being named among the possible candidates for the post of prime minister. If she wins, she could become the first female prime minister in Japan.

Another strong contender for the post is considered to be the current Minister of Agriculture, Shinjiro Koizumi, who also competed with Ishiba in last year's elections, says Olga Dobrinskaya. The "second person" in it, the current Secretary General of the Cabinet of Ministers, Yoshimasa Hayashi, can also compete for the post of head of government.

How will the change of the Japanese prime minister affect relations with Russia

Relations between Moscow and Tokyo deteriorated significantly after the start of the special operation. In his keynote speech, Isiba emphasized continued support for Ukraine and the sanctions policy against Russia. In January 2025, Japan imposed sanctions against 11 individuals and 29 legal entities registered in the Russian Federation. An export ban was also imposed on 22 organizations. In general, Tokyo began imposing sanctions in March 2014 and has only been tightening them on a regular basis since the start of its military operation.

Isiba also takes a rather aggressive position on the so-called "Kuril issue." There has been a territorial dispute between Moscow and Tokyo since the end of World War II — these are the Kuril islands of Kunashir, Shikotan, Iturup, and the Habomai Range. Because of this, Moscow and Tokyo have not yet concluded a peace treaty. In December, Isiba confirmed that Japan claims four islands in the southern Kuril Islands and blamed Russia for ending the dialogue on this issue. At the same time, he stressed his intention to work on solving the territorial problem and concluding a peace treaty with the Russian Federation.

The Kremlin also noted that Japan expresses solidarity with Western countries unfriendly to Moscow and joins anti-Russian sanctions, which hinders dialogue on a peace treaty. "All these are unfriendly steps, which, of course, are completely preventing any substantive negotiations at the moment," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

In January 2025, the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that Russia would consider the possibility of restoring relations with Japan if initiatives from the other side were supported by real steps.

The expected change of power in Japan is unlikely to improve relations between Tokyo and Moscow, Vladimir Nelidov believes.

— Foreign policy issues are far from being in the first place for the majority of Japanese right now, especially issues such as relations with Russia in the current situation. The vast majority of Japanese political forces generally follow an established anti-Russian consensus, which corresponds to the vision in the West. Accordingly, there will be no rapprochement until the crisis in relations between Russia and the West is resolved," the expert says.

In addition, none of the alleged candidates is seen as sympathetic to Moscow. Therefore, whoever becomes the new leader of Japan — Takaichi, known for her right-wing conservative views, the pro-American Koizumi or Hayashi, who recently called on the world to unite in condemning Russia's actions, it is unlikely that this will affect Tokyo's course for the better for the Russian Federation.