"For investment growth, the key rate should be below 10%"

By the end of the year, the Central Bank's rate may drop to 16%, but to support investments it should be less than 10%, Alexander Kalinin, the head of Opora Russia, said in an interview with Izvestia at the WEF-2025. According to him, due to expensive loans, the economy actually entered a recession: the increase in investments in the second quarter was only 1.5%. At the same time, banks are in no hurry to reduce interest rates on loans following the key one, and the fiscal burden on small businesses is growing by about 20% per year. What support measures do companies need, what will change for growing enterprises and the self—employed, and under what conditions investors from China, Japan, and South Korea will come to Russia - in an interview with Alexander Kalinin.

"5% of the tourist tax is an exorbitant amount"

— The tourist tax has been in effect since this year. Its lower threshold is 100 rubles, and the upper one is 1% of the cost of living. Earlier, Opora Russia wrote a letter to the State Council stating that businesses, in particular hostels, are not satisfied with the minimum travel tax of 100 rubles. Has the discussion progressed on this issue?

— In this context, we are talking not only about the minimum bar of 100 rubles per room. Starting from September 1, those hotels and hostels that have not registered in the special register of classified accommodation facilities and have not passed voluntary accreditation will not be able to be hosted and advertised on digital platforms. That is, in parallel with the introduction of the tax, a lot of work is underway to whitewash this sector.

In addition, the law provides for the possibility for municipalities and cities of federal significance to raise taxes to 5% within five years. We said right away that 5% of the tourist tax is an exorbitant amount. This will be an additional burden primarily on citizens. After all, the tax is paid by those who are hosted. But it is also a barrier for foreign tourists. Therefore, we hope that the regions will not set the maximum level. This will lead to an increase in prices for travel services, which are already quite high. We are located in Vladivostok, where the cost of hotel accommodation has increased several times over the year.

"The government is not ready to expand tax benefits"

— This year, the authorities were going to introduce a new category for small and medium—sized companies that have grown out of the category of SMEs+. But, apparently, the topic is stuck. What is the current stage of the discussion? And does a business need this category anyway?

— Such discussions were held because many companies that exceeded a turnover of 2 billion rubles a year ceased to be considered small and medium-sized businesses and, consequently, lost access to government support. For many years, business has been proposing either to raise the threshold for classifying as an SME (it has not changed since 2015, although inflation has since exceeded 100%), or to introduce an intermediate category.

Today, the government is not ready to expand tax benefits. But it was discussed, including at the board meeting with Mikhail Mishustin in May, that such a category could be introduced with a limited set of measures — access to special trades and umbrella guarantees of the SME Corporation. That would be enough for a business. I think the issue will be resolved in this format.

In addition, companies with large turnover that engage in innovation can apply for the status of small technology enterprises — there is a separate federal project for them. It also provides support, including for those who have crossed the 2 billion mark. So now there are two possible ways: participation in procurement on the rights of small businesses or the use of support measures for technology companies.

— Can such measures be implemented this year?

— I think it's more like the next one. It is necessary to adopt appropriate regulations. The State Duma is just coming out of vacation, and work on the draft laws will begin in mid-September. Therefore, most likely, this year the issue will be formally determined, but the measures will actually work later.

"The burden on small businesses is already higher than on large companies"

— In May, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the authorities were considering raising the revenue threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises. What exactly is being discussed and are such changes necessary?

— Of course, we would like to see the thresholds for SMEs raised. They were set back in 2015, but this is hardly possible now: an increase in the limits will lead to additional shortfalls in budget revenues. In the current conditions of scarcity, this is unlikely to be done. We'll see what happens next.

Now there is an instruction to work out the issue of insurance premiums. There is a discussion going on. We believe that the government's decision in 2020 to reduce the rate of contributions to the Social Fund to 15% for payments over one and a half minimum wages has fully justified itself. Small businesses then came out of the shadows en masse, and there were fewer gray salaries. If the benefits are canceled, companies will start moving back into the "gray" zone, because the tax burden on the payroll is already very high: it includes VAT, income tax, insurance premiums, personal income tax.

The Ministry of Finance is currently discussing the revision of individual preferences. I think proposals will already be announced at the Moscow Financial Forum on September 19. For example, if the rate of 15% applies to most SMEs, then in a number of industries there is a super discount of 7.6% on any salary, even the minimum. This is, in fact, unreasonable. If you want to pay less, give me decent salaries. In particular, it talks about IT, residents of advanced development territories and Skolkovo. According to my information, this benefit will be reviewed.

At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the fiscal burden on small businesses is already growing by about 20% per year. The minimum wage is going up next year, and insurance premiums directly depend on it. Therefore, budget revenues from SMEs will increase without that. In percentage terms, the burden on small businesses is already higher than on large companies.

"We are categorically against lowering the VAT threshold to 30 million"

— This year, one of the main innovations was the introduction of VAT for small and medium-sized businesses. Opora Russia appealed to the Federal Tax Service with a request not to fine companies for errors in declarations on this tax. Have you received any feedback? And how does the business perceive this innovation in general, is it coping with it?

— Indeed, small and medium-sized companies with an income of 60 million rubles or more have become VAT payers. For about 300,000 enterprises, this is a serious increase in the fiscal burden. But the most important thing is that the accounting system itself is changing. Many entrepreneurs are not familiar with it. In addition, VAT is paid not from the receipt of money, but from the shipment of goods. This creates risks of errors and late reporting.

We applied to the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Tax Service back in April. Based on the results of the reporting for the first quarter, a decision was made — no fines were applied. But the accounts for the second quarter have already been submitted, and sanctions are possible here. Therefore, we will return to this topic again.

In addition, there was an initiative by a large retailer to lower the VAT threshold to 30 million or even zero. We are categorically against it. The government and parliament promised that there would be no changes after the tax system was adjusted until 2030. A sharp reduction in the VAT threshold would mean that not 300 thousand, but millions of companies would become taxpayers. This will affect the microbusiness, where many do not even have full—time accountants - only outsourcing. As a result, prices for buyers will rise, and the budget itself is unlikely to receive additional revenue: the amounts will simply be offset by large businesses. In fact, this is an attempt to shift costs to the smallest ones.

— The Ministry of Finance has already promised not to change the rules on VAT until 2028.

— Nevertheless, there is an instruction on this issue, and the government will prepare an appropriate report. But I would like to emphasize once again that any changes would be extremely painful for microenterprises. And the big question is whether the budget will receive additional revenue from this. But the fact that business will start to go into "gray" schemes and prices for Russians will rise is obvious.

"There is no growth for the second quarter in a row, in fact, we are talking about a recession"

— According to the Central Bank, banks reject more than half of SME loan restructuring applications. Is there a risk of mass bankruptcies in this regard? And how should a business act in such a situation?

— I have other statistics: banks already consider about 20% of loans to be problematic. This means that borrowers either pay with delays or ask for restructuring. The number of such applications has doubled. As a result, the burden on banks' capital is increasing, because they are required to form 100% of reserves for overdue payments. This is especially painful for medium-sized banks. Therefore, loans are issued more carefully if there are doubts about the reliability of the client.

A separate problem is business models where companies are constantly having to re-credit, such as trading. This leads to cash gaps and deterioration of settlements with counterparties. We record such cases. All this is reflected in the economy: for the second quarter in a row, there is no growth, in fact, we are talking about a recession. There are sectors where the dynamics remains — defense orders, import substitution, domestic tourism. But there is a serious decline in a number of industries: the automotive industry, both freight and passenger cars, and construction.

We hope that the rate will decrease faster. On September 12, we are waiting for the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank, my forecast is 16%. But I would like the key rate to drop even lower by the end of the year.

— In your opinion, which key rate would be comfortable for business?

— Rosstat has published data: in the first quarter, investment growth was 8%, and in the second quarter it was already only 1.5%. In other words, the dynamics has slowed down dramatically. For investments, the key rate must be below 10%. But we definitely won't see such a level this year, so we need to support investments with other tools.

We proposed to significantly expand leasing for SMEs. This will also support the domestic manufacturer. SME Corporation has a subsidiary, SME-Leasing, which has a preferential rate of 6% for Russian equipment and 8% for foreign equipment. But the volumes are still small due to the high cost.

We have appealed to the Central Bank and the legislators with a proposal to make changes so that leasing develops not only at the expense of the budget, but also through the mechanisms of the Central Bank. This could be a way out of a situation where investment growth rates have dropped almost fivefold. Additional regulatory solutions are needed to resume investment growth.

— A law has recently been passed that gives SMEs and the self-employed the right to credit holidays for up to six months every five years. Initially, we wanted to exclude the self-employed, as they already have this opportunity as individuals. But in the end they decided to leave. How do you feel about this decision? Is it fair?

— There are about 15 trillion rubles in the SME portfolio, and more than 70% of loans are issued at a floating rate. The banks just recalculated the interest and that was it. Therefore, the right to vacation is really necessary. We have 13.5 million self-employed people, and at least half are active, many have taken out microloans. It would be unfair to deprive them of the opportunity to restructure their debts. Without such a rule, banks often consider that the amount is small, and the person will pay somehow.

But there is another problem. When the key interest rate increases, banks instantly recalculate the interest on loans. And when it decreases, the process is delayed. On September 12, the interest rate is likely to fall again, and borrowers should know that they have the right to demand a prompt interest reduction from the bank. Otherwise, creditors are dragging their feet, and for people this is serious money.

— With what lag are such decisions usually made?

— It all depends on the activity of the borrower. Large companies know their rights, they have financial services — they immediately apply, and the rate is reduced. But small businesses and the self-employed often have no information. Therefore, it is important that people know and exercise their rights, especially in the current difficult conditions.

"About 7 million people came out of the shadows"

— In 2028, the experiment on the self-employment regime is coming to an end. Do you think it should be continued or revised? And do self-employed people need additional benefits, such as raising the income threshold?

— The problem of shadow employment is relevant for any economy. Freelancers work everywhere, and governments are looking for ways to bring them "into the white zone." In Russia, this experiment was carried out at a high technological level. You can become self—employed in five minutes: a passport, the My Taxes application, and you are already registered. The regime is very preferential, simple and largely based on trust.

Naturally, large databases have been accumulated, and it is clear that the regime turned out to be super profitable. Many entrepreneurs choose it instead of registering an individual entrepreneur or LLC: there are fewer requirements, checks and documents. For example, a self-employed cosmetologist works quietly, and if you open an office as an individual entrepreneur, you will have to collect licenses and keep records. This created a kind of arbitration between the status of self-employed and small businesses.

At the same time, lawmakers have promised for many years that they would not touch the regime until 2028. And it definitely cannot be canceled — it has proven effective in legalizing employment: about 7 million people have come out of the shadows. Perhaps some activities will be excluded, such as cosmetology. Additional payments are likely to be made to accelerate the formation of retirement experience: currently, the self-employed only have a social pension at age 70. But income thresholds should not be raised — 2.4 million rubles a year is quite enough.

It is important that the automated Simplified Taxation System (AGS) is being developed in parallel. Since September 1, the Primorsky Territory has also introduced it. This is the next step after self-employment: you can hire up to five employees, and the taxes are calculated by the Federal Tax Service itself. You pay 8% of the turnover, and that's it. Thus, with stricter control over the self-employed, a "bridge" to the microbusiness will appear. Those who abuse the self—employment regime will gradually be transferred to the insurance policy, and then to a full-fledged business.

"Eastern countries invest little in Russia"

— In May, at a meeting with Delovaya Rossiya, the president discussed the idea of introducing a revolving tax. How do you feel about this measure?

— I think it was more about VAT and microbusiness. We once had a turnover tax, the sales tax. But in fact, a simplified taxation system is a turnover tax. Therefore, in my opinion, after last year's tax reform, the system should not be changed until at least 2030. The business is waiting for stability. Any changes are possible, but only with advance notice. So far, I have not seen anything about the turnover tax in the instructions.

Other issues are currently in the works — on the self-employed and on lowering the VAT threshold for trade. But the main problem is something else: you can't change the rules of the game too often. This affects investments, especially foreign ones. The investor must understand when the invested money will be returned. If the tax, labor, or customs system is constantly changing, there will be no investments.

The situation is particularly sensitive in the Far East, where the percentage of foreign investment is higher than the national average. Nearby are the largest Asian economies: China, South Korea, and Japan. But Eastern countries invest little in Russia, partly because of the instability of the rules. For them, the key issue is the predictability of the tax system. If it is not there, we will not receive serious foreign investments.