We found a balance: sales of new cars increased by 1.3%

The unexpected sharp increase in new car sales in July, after a long decline, did not continue in August — in the last month of summer, the number of new cars sold increased by only 1.3%. In the near future, monthly sales of new cars will remain approximately at the current level, although small fluctuations are possible, experts believe. The details are in the Izvestia article.

The market has grown slightly

According to the results of the last month of summer, 122,235 new passenger cars were sold in Russia. Such data is provided by the analytical agency Autostat, based on the number of issued EPTS. This is 1.3% higher than in July, but 17.6% less than in August last year. If we compare the volume of cars sold since the beginning of the year (773,264 units), then the car market in Russia decreased by 23% compared to January-August 2024.

The undisputed leader, by a significant margin from its closest competitors, is the Lada brand — in August AvtoVAZ sold 27,610 new cars. At the same time, the share of the domestic automaker in the market has been decreasing for a long time. Now it stands at 22.6%, while in August last year the company held 26% of the market.

Haval regained the title of the most popular foreign brand, taking second place with a total of 16,028 cars sold. Chery (11,099) dropped to the third position, followed by Geely (8,689). For the first time, the Belarusian company Belgee entered the top five leaders of the Russian car market with 7,806 cars sold. Changan is on the sixth line (7,010 vehicles), followed by Jetour (4,485) and Solaris (3,668). Toyota (2,996 vehicles, all imported through alternative channels) and Omoda (2,984 vehicles) complete the top 10.

Lada Granta family cars (12,912 units) continue to hold the lead in the "personal standings", although sales decreased by 31.4% compared to last August. Demand for AVTOVAZ's flagship Lada Vesta model fell by 43.9% (this is the largest decrease among the ten most popular models). As a result, the Vesta (6332 cars), which had been on the second line for a long time, dropped to the third position, losing the silver to the Haval Jolion crossover (6643).

The Belarusian crossover Belgee X50 took the fourth position with a score of 5,102 cars. This model showed the highest increase (+59.6%) compared to last August. Rounding out the top five is the recent Russian market debutant, Chery Tiggo 7L (3,770 units). The top ten most popular models on the Russian market last month also included Changan Uni-S (3532), Chery Tiggo 4 (3476), Geely Monjaro (3331), Haval M6 (3141) and Lada Niva Legend (3 013).

The bar is set

The current market figures of 120-125 thousand cars per month are a new sustainable reality, says Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. This level has become the base indicator around which sales are currently fluctuating, she notes. It reflects the market's adaptation to changed conditions, the current supply structure and current effective demand, the expert adds.

— I would not call these figures an absolute ceiling until the end of the year. Historically, September and December show bursts of activity due to seasonal factors and marketing campaigns. Therefore, we can see individual months with a result of 130-135 thousand units. The key factor will be the ability to increase the supply of the most popular models to dealer sites. The final dynamics will strongly depend on the macroeconomic situation, but in general, we should expect the market to end the year in this new range of values," Irina Frank told Izvestia.

During the autumn, average monthly sales will range from 115-130 thousand vehicles, says Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for New Car Sales at Avilon AG. According to him, in September sales of new passenger cars should be about 120 thousand units.

— There is no overstocking at dealers' and importers' drains, the warehouses are balanced, the situation can be described in a number of ways even as a "slight shortage". Sales today are strongly tied to the key rate, at which we expect the Central Bank to meet in the first half of September. If the rate drops by 2-3% more, sales will increase," he said.

According to Renat Tyukteev, there are no reasons for optimism yet: the government is struggling with the over-indebtedness of the population, rates on commercial loans are high, car prices are rising, and discounts will decrease. He also noted that a number of brands had revised sales support programs for September, as subsidized loan programs that worked to keep demand down throughout the spring and summer of this year were costing them too much.

The traditional autumn market growth occurred earlier this year, in July. Therefore, we should not expect a noticeable increase in sales this month.: It has already happened, says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine. He also believes that in the near future, monthly sales of new cars will amount to 120-125 thousand units.

— Maybe one month the result will be a little more, the other a little less. But there will most likely be no sharp fluctuations in the market by the end of the year, " predicts the editor—in-chief of Za Rulem.

The Belarusian effect

Experts call Belgee's entry into the top five best-selling car brands one of the most curious and significant events of the past month. For a brand that appeared on the market just over two years ago, this is a very good result that companies that have been present in Russia for a much longer time could not achieve, the editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine notes.

— It is noteworthy that Belgee took the fourth place in August, having currently only two models in its portfolio, ahead of even brands with a wider model range. This most clearly demonstrates the preferences of Russian buyers: although the Belgee cars themselves are not the most modern, they have the most necessary functions without any frills, and they cost quite adequate money," Maxim Kadakov said in a conversation with Izvestia.

In his opinion, the Belarusian brand has a good potential for further growth, especially given the imminent appearance of the third model in Russia. In the coming months, Belgee is likely to remain in the top five, but it is unlikely to be able to take higher positions before the end of the year, the expert believes.

The chances of a Belarusian brand gaining a foothold in the top five are very high, but it's premature to talk about entering the top three in the short term, Nikita Kolesnikov, a representative of the Japanese export company HSS in the Russian Federation, agrees.

— The gap between fifth, fourth and third place in absolute terms is still very significant and amounts to more than three thousand cars. In order to bridge this gap, Belgee needs not only to maintain its current pace, but also to seriously increase its production and logistics capacities, as well as diversify its model range, which today is strongly tied to one successful model, the X50," he told Izvestia.

According to his forecasts, the fight for the third place between Chery, Haval and Belgee will be one of the main intrigues of the next year.