Work stoppage: Wage growth in Russia has started to slow down for the first time since the pandemic

Wage growth in Russia has reached a ceiling and started to slow down for the first time since the pandemic. In June, the average nominal salary increased by 15% to 103 thousand rubles, but the rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than last year. In previous years, increases, on the contrary, outstripped the results of previous periods. The main reasons are high rates, an increasing tax burden and the exhaustion of business resources against the background of declining consumer demand: it is becoming increasingly difficult for companies to stimulate staff financially. This simultaneously restrains the economy and cools inflation. Whether the slowdown will continue and in which areas salaries will stop being raised — in the Izvestia article.

How much are salaries growing in Russia

In June, the average nominal salary in Russia reached 103 thousand rubles, according to Rosstat data. This is 15% more than in the early summer of 2024. However, growth began to slow down for the first time since 2020, when businesses massively cut staff and salaries due to the pandemic and the transition to online. Then the salary increased at an accelerated pace: for example, in the middle of 2024 - by 15.3% compared to the same period of the previous year, in 2023 — by 14% against 12% in 2022.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Pavel Volkov

A decrease in growth was also recorded in May 2025, when earnings increased by 14.5% against almost 18% in 2024, Izvestia calculated based on Rosstat data.

Previously, only the growth of real wages — earnings adjusted for inflation - slowed down, as prices rose faster than incomes. The trend appeared back in 2024, when the cost of goods and services increased by almost 10% per year. At the same time, the average nominal salary has continued to grow at an accelerated pace — until now.

The main reason for the slowdown in wage growth is the cooling of business activity after the rapid upswing in 2022-2023, explained Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Companies have become more cautious about increasing staff costs amid a slowing economy, lower lending rates, higher taxes and shrinking business margins.

— Budget resources are additionally limited: the share of government spending in the economy remains high, but wage indexation in the public sector and its contractors is slowing down. In private business, the pressure is exerted by the high key interest rate (in June it was 21%, and in August it was 18%) and rising debt servicing costs, which limits the opportunities for salary increases," the expert added.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Eduard Kornienko

The slowdown in the "salary race" is becoming a noticeable trend in the labor market, Avito Rabota confirmed. Previously, job offers on the platform grew by 20-30% per year, but now the pace is much lower. According to the results of the first half of 2025, average salaries increased by only 5%, to 75 thousand rubles per month, said Roman Gubanov, Director of Service Development.

Rosstat, when asked by Izvestia about the causes of the trend, replied that the service only observes and records the actual situation in the economy, without providing analytics. The editorial board also appealed to the Ministry of Labor.

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Who will stop getting a salary increase in Russia

The average salary of 103 thousand rubles in the Russian Federation is significantly less than 50% of the country's employees, said Viktor Lyashok, a leading researcher at the INSAP Center of the IPEI Presidential Academy. According to him, another indicator is more indicative — the median salary, which reflects the level of remuneration above and below which half of the employees earn. Official statistics on it are published only once a year, but, according to calculations by Sberindex, in June it amounted to 66 thousand rubles, he added.

The largest wage growth today remains in the military-industrial complex and the IT sector, as well as in manufacturing and construction, said the deputy general director of the service "Work.<url>" by Alexander Veterkov. At the same time, minimal increases or stagnation are noted in low—margin and consumer sectors - trade, retail, services and light industry.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Pavel Bednyakov

In the future, the slowdown in wage growth will primarily affect specialists in oversupplied and non—technical fields - administrative staff, marketing, and unskilled labor, the expert believes. Demand is increasingly shifting in favor of narrow technical staff: engineers, developers. At the same time, interest in humanitarian and supportive roles is decreasing.

— A slowdown in salary growth in the future is also possible in senior positions, whereas for ordinary specialists, on the contrary, an increase is possible. This is especially true for technical professions, such as welders, carpenters and other working professions," said Yulia Kovalenko, Deputy head of the Higher School of Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

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What will the slowdown in wage growth lead to?

Wage growth is likely to slow further in the coming months, according to Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global. According to him, companies have already compensated for the inflationary surge in recent years and revised salaries, and new increases will be targeted. The harsh policy of the Central Bank and the slowdown in corporate profit growth are pushing businesses to save money. At the same time, salaries will continue to rise in certain sectors with a continuing shortage of staff.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Eduard Kornienko

Instead of raising salaries, businesses will increasingly rely on non-material motivation: flexible working hours, the possibility of remote or mixed work, additional health insurance and corporate training, the analyst continued. Bonuses and bonuses become an important tool, which can be varied depending on financial results without fixing expenses in the payroll. Benefits are also popular — discounts on products, compensation for food and transport.

In general, a slowdown in wage growth may weaken consumer demand, especially for non-food products and services, which will slow down inflation, Vladimir Chernov believes. But this is fraught with stagnation for the economy, as domestic demand remains one of the key drivers of GDP. Real incomes of the population will depend on prices: if they remain high, the slowdown in salary increases will lead to a drop in real incomes of the population.