How Polish President Nawrocki is changing relations with Ukraine. Analysis
After the new president of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, took office, the country's relations with Ukraine sharply deteriorated. The head of state vetoed the law on assistance to refugees, proposed to equate Bandera symbols with Nazi symbols and demanded to recognize responsibility for the Volyn massacre. The opposition government of Donald Tusk even agrees with him in part. Against this background, scandals involving Ukrainians break out in the country from time to time: for example, the other day a Ukrainian journalist insulted the president on a Polish live broadcast, which provoked sharp criticism from both ordinary residents and the authorities. What awaits Kiev and Warsaw next is in the Izvestia article.
How Navrotsky treats Ukraine
The fact that Kiev is waiting for a strong cooling of relations with Warsaw became clear during the Polish presidential campaign. A skeptical, if not negative, attitude towards Ukraine was typical of almost all significant candidates. The 1.5 million refugees from it, who were hospitably received by Polish society three years ago, have now become a problem causing political controversy. Even liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, hoping to arouse the sympathy of voters, spoke about the impossibility of equating Ukrainians with fellow citizens and proposed to deprive unemployed parents of child benefits.
• Karol Navrotsky from the conservative Law and Justice Party was much tougher in his rhetoric. He not only went to the polls with a proposal to reduce the number of refugees and cancel benefits for them, but also opposed Ukraine's membership in NATO and the European Union. Although Navrotsky did not refuse military assistance to Kiev, he ruled out sending Polish troops to Ukraine. In addition, he told voters about the bad attitude of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky towards Poland.
• Navrotsky, being a historian, also reminded voters about the Volyn massacre and Ukraine's refusal not only to recognize it, but also to exhume the bodies. On the last day of the presidential campaign, he laid flowers at the monument to the victims of the tragedy in the village of Domostava on the Ukrainian border. The monument depicts the body of a baby impaled on a trident, symbolizing the Ukrainian coat of arms. As a result, it was Navrotsky who won the election and was given the opportunity to obstruct the policy of Donald Tusk's government, which maintains a policy of partnership with Ukraine.
What problems have worsened
• It was the historical card that Navrotsky began to play in the first place, assuming the office of president on August 6. He directly linked Ukraine's possible accession to the European Union with the recognition of responsibility for the Volyn massacre, which official Kiev stubbornly refuses to do.
• This issue was aggravated by the scandal that occurred on August 9 at the concert of the Belarusian rapper Max Korzh in Warsaw. Then several people came to the stadium with black and red flags of the OUN-UPA (an organization recognized as extremist in Russia and banned) - this organization in Poland is found guilty of the deaths of about 100 thousand people during the Volyn massacre. In response, Navrotsky proposed to equate Bandera symbols with prohibited ones, as has already been done with Nazi symbols, which Kiev strongly disagrees with.
• In the third week of his presidency, Navrotsky moved to fulfill a promise to limit benefits for Ukrainian refugees. He vetoed a law extended every six months that provides access to child benefits (something Trzaskowski opposed), medical care, and temporary protection. The benefits will expire on September 30. Moreover, Navrotsky proposed his own law, which extends the process of granting Polish citizenship from three to ten years, and also toughens the punishment for illegal border crossing to five years. These measures will directly affect the citizens of Ukraine.
• Against this background, the topic of Ukrainian grain, which has been opposed by local farmers for two years, has revived in Polish discourse. However, it was no longer Navrotsky, but Tusk who recalled the still unresolved problem. The Prime Minister said that the unpunished import of unlimited quantities of cheap grain harms Poland's agriculture, so measures must be taken against it.
How will the relationship develop further
It took only three weeks for Navrotsky to cause an aggravation in relations with Ukraine and make it clear that there would be no return to the past. At the same time, his actions and decisions can hardly be called arbitrary, adopted without regard to the opinions of others. Polish society is systematically moving from a favorable attitude towards Ukraine to an indifferent and negative one. Surveys show that fewer and fewer Poles want to help refugees, provide them with benefits and put up with the consequences of their arrival, such as rising housing prices and competition in the labor market.
• Ukraine, for its part, does not take any measures against Poland, limiting itself to statements of disagreement, which are sometimes published through media sources. This will certainly push Navrotsky to toughen his rhetoric, as it helps him earn political points and meet the expectations of voters from the beginning of the presidential term. There is still no active objection within the country to a change of course towards Ukraine.
• In Kiev, it should now be alarming that this kind of policy will become mainstream in Poland, since certain restrictions on Ukraine are shared even by the liberal opposition to Navrotsky. So far, she agrees with him about limiting benefits and grain imports, but this flywheel may swing further, affecting even more points of contact with its eastern neighbor. Poland is still a military ally of Ukraine, providing its logistical capacities for the supply of Western weapons. But if Polish society decides that it is time to reconsider this aspect of their relationship, then it will have its own guide who will help to achieve this.
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