The expert predicted a reduction in the key rate to 17% in September.
The key rate of the Central Bank of Russia may decrease to 17% at the upcoming meeting of the regulator on September 12. Andrey Kochetkov, a private investment consultant, told Izvestia about this on August 26.
According to him, such a forecast can be made by the observed dynamics of inflation in the Russian Federation in the last few weeks.
"Given that there is some price deflation now, it can be assumed that at the next meeting the Central Bank may reduce the rate by at least one percentage point," the expert explained.
Kochetkov added that prices in Russia usually decrease from July to September due to the influx of new crops. No food problems are expected this year either, he noted. According to the consultant, the domestic stock market will react poorly to a possible rate cut, but the key one will affect federal loan bonds (OFZ).
"The bond market, accordingly, will show an increase in the value of the bonds themselves, but a drop in their profitability. Accordingly, its attractiveness will gradually decrease," Kochetkov stressed, adding that the ruble is likely to remain stable or weaken slightly.
At the same time, Mikhail Belyaev, an expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, PhD in Economics, and a financial analyst, does not expect a reduction in the Central Bank's rate at the upcoming meeting.
"Knowing the Central Bank's commitment to maintaining tight monetary policy, I think at least the rate will not be changed," he said.
Belyaev pointed out that even with a decrease in the key rate, the market probably will not react to this.
"There is no sustainable confidence in further reduction of this very rate. This is important for the market. It's not so much the fact itself and not so much the level of the bet based on these figures and these indicators, as the confidence that this will continue for a long period," the expert explained.
On August 21, Nikolai Kulbaka, PhD in Economics, Associate professor at the RANEPA, announced that the Central Bank could reduce the key rate by a maximum of two percentage points by the end of the year. According to him, everything will depend on the dynamics of inflation in the autumn, which cannot be predicted at the moment. The expert clarified that during this season, as a rule, prices always rise.
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