Experts have calculated the critical rate level for new buildings in megacities

A reduction in market mortgage rates to 10% will make the purchase of ready-made housing in Russia more profitable than new buildings on a family mortgage, the federal company Floors told Izvestia.

"The average price per square meter of secondary housing in Russia is 20.6% cheaper than in the primary market, and if compared with the average selling price of finished housing, the difference reaches 60%, because against the background of high mortgage rates on the market, Russians are trying to find options with the greatest discount and below market value. The price gap between ready—made and under construction housing has reached record levels over the past few years of preferential mortgage programs, and lower market rates will lead to a flow of buyers from the primary market to the secondary market," said Tatyana Reshetnikova, deputy head of the mortgage department at the federal company Etagi.

The company's experts analyzed what level of market mortgage rates could become critical for demand in the primary market in Russia's million-plus cities, given the existing difference in the average cost per square meter of secondary and under construction housing. To do this, they calculated at what market rate for ready-made housing monthly payments on family and regular mortgages with a loan term of 10 years will be the same.

In general, in Russia, for payments on family and market mortgages to become the same, the rate of 10.3% is sufficient, in Omsk — 13.7%, in Perm and Chelyabinsk — 12.9%, in Nizhny Novgorod — 12.5%, Ufa — 12.4%, Voronezh — 11.3%, Krasnodar — 10.7%, Novosibirsk — 9.6%. Yekaterinburg — 9.5%, Kazan — 8.7%, Samara and Volgograd — 7.3%, Krasnoyarsk — 7.2%, Rostov-on-Don — 6.3%, St. Petersburg — 4.9% and Moscow — 3.8%.

"Due to restrictions in the limits on preferential lending programs, their impact on the gap between the price of secondary and primary housing in Moscow and St. Petersburg is not so significant, plus a large proportion of new housing is being built outside central locations, where the square meter is a priori cheaper," explained Reshetnikova.

Also, according to her, it should be borne in mind that most existing new buildings require additional investments in repairs, and the secondary market has recently accumulated quite a lot of offers from investors in new houses with repairs and often furniture and household appliances, so a further reduction in mortgage rates on market mortgages will significantly increase competition between finished and under construction housing..

Home threshold: the budget will spend up to 60 billion after the introduction of new family mortgage rates

How much is this and will the Ministry of Finance go to such expenses if the initiative is approved?

Earlier, on August 21, Izvestia reviewed the calculations of the Analytica Research Center. Business. Pravo", from which it follows that budget expenditures on the family mortgage program may increase to 60 billion rubles within six months after the introduction of differentiated rates. According to experts, each increase in the volume of disbursements by 1 billion rubles will require an additional 40 million rubles from the budget. By the end of the year, Russians can apply for mortgage loans for about 1.5 trillion rubles more.

Before that, on August 19, data from the Central Bank showed that in June, the issuance of mortgages for individual housing construction (IHS) decreased to 12 thousand loans, which is almost five times less than last year's level, when about 60 thousand loans were issued. Lending volumes have more than tripled, to 47 billion rubles.