Experts predicted deflation in Russia until the end of September

The decline in prices in Russia will continue until the middle or end of September, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Deflation has been recorded for the fifth week in a row — from August 12 to August 18, it amounted to 0.04%.

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"The observed decrease in consumer prices is a short—term situation that occurred after increased inflationary activity. If we consider the deflation of food products, it is worth noting that the seasonality factor plays an important role here," says Nadezhda Kapustina, professor at the Department of Economic Security and Risk Management at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Prices were affected by several factors at once. For example, the strict policy of the Central Bank. In early June, for the first time in three years, the regulator lowered its key rate from a record level of 21%.

The population has switched to a savings model of behavior due to high interest rates on loans and deposits, said Anton Pavlov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Absolut Bank.

Nevertheless, experts predict an inflation rate of 6.5-7% by the end of the year. To achieve the 4% target, increased competition and increased labor productivity will be required, Nadezhda Kapustina is sure. In addition, it is important to stabilize the external economic situation. In this case, it will be possible to reach the target no earlier than the first half of 2026.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

Moreover, deflation in Russia will last until the end of September.